There is a split slate of MLB action today but seeing how one of these slates features Jon Lester taking on the Mets, we’ll let Brian handle that game. Instead, we’ll focus on the rest of the 10 game slate tonight and the choices that come with that in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 so let’s get cracking!
If you’re spending up on this slate, Julio Urias is sure to get the attention as he’s been outstanding in his last 10 games and especially in the last four. Since June, his ERA hasn’t been above 2.30, the wOBA hasn’t been above .263, and the FIP hasn’t been above 3.67. His K rate has really picked up lately as well, sitting over 27% since the start of August which is an increase over his 26.7% for the season. What is really exciting for the upside is he whiffs lefties at a 31% rate and the Arizona lineup currently projects to have two of them, as opposed to all righties. Since the deadline, Arizona has fallen to 18th or worse in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ and is over 22% in K rate. They are also bottom 10 against the curveball, which has a .177 wOBA, 67 strikeouts, and a 26.5% whiff rate.
Even against the Rangers, I’m not paying five digits for Jose Urquidy when he has a K rate barely above 21% and an xFIP of 4.40 and I’m still terrified to touch Sean Manaea. He just walked through the Jays and White Sox while only giving up three total earned runs but had a five-start stretch before that where he didn’t clear eight DK points. Joe Musgrove is a “fine” option I guess but being worse against lefties means the Giants are primed to give him some issues. I think there’s a whole bunch of pitchers priced like Aces but aren’t nearly close enough.
The one who does have a clear path to success at his salary is Tylor Megill of the Mets. He’s not without his warts but the Cards being so righty-heavy are going to accentuate his strengths. Lefties have killed him with a .408 wOBA and a 6.31 FIP but there are likely to be just two lefties playing for the Cardinals. Against righties, Megill has been outstanding with a .226 wOBA, a K rate over 30%, and an xFIP of just 2.68. His slider is a big help and he uses it more to the right side with a .248 wOBA, 33.3% whiff rate, and 24 strikeouts. St. Louis is 15th against the slider but way into the negatives on FanGraphs and they are also bottom-five against the fastball.
Huascar Ynoa misses out on the Ace tier just barely but he definitely catches my eye. He draws the Rockies Road matchup and Colorado is 20th against the slider, a big bump for Ynoa. We recapped all the numbers in yesterday’s edition but suffice to say, Colorado has been trash on the road. Ynoa does have some reverse splits with a .315 wOBA against righties and is slated to face six of them, but the xFIP against that side is 3.51, only .20 higher than lefties. It’s a little strange to see because his hard-hit rate against righty hitters is 25.5% and the ground ball rate is 53.8%. The HR/FB rate is a sky-high 27.6% so there are reasons the numbers don’t make a lot of sense. With the pitch data backing him up, Ynoa’s slider really looks like a weapon. It’s his primary pitch but has 53 strikeouts, a .240 wOBA, and a 38.2% whiff rate.
This is going to be Cal Quantrill’s third time seeing the Twins in six turns, which is a little nerve-racking but the guy has pitched well for the most part. His change and slider have been used a little more lately but it’s not been anything crazy different. Both of those pitches are under a .255 wOBA and have a whiff rate of at least 20.4% (the slider is up at 31.7%) and Quantrill is pretty steady in his splits. My largest hangup is that he only has a 15.4% K rate against righties and should face five of them. The xFIP is also a concern as it is over 4.25 against each side of the plate so there are pans to failure here, but he at least deserves a mention.
The only other pitcher I at least have a mild interest in is Ranger Suarez and even then, it’s a dangerous path to walk. The difference between his 1.38 ERA and 3.57 xFIP is noteworthy but he does have a K rate of 25% and the Cubbies are whiffing 29% of the time since the deadline. Now, that doesn’t mean they don’t have some potential on their side because they are also 12th or higher in wOBA, OPS, slugging, and sit sixth in ISO against lefties. The Cubs are 18th against the changeup and that has been a dynamite swing and miss pitch for Suarez, generating a 40.1% whiff rate so far. All of his pitches have a wOBA under .2500 but it’s really just the Cubs not being a pushover like the perception might be.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.15 Stacks
I know they got smacked by *checks notes*….Jordan Lyles last night, but the Astros are crazy cheap tonight against Kohei Arihara. He’s getting destroyed by righties especially with a .426 wOBA, .304 average, 7.56 FIP, and a fly-ball/hard-hit combo over 43.5% each. Both of his main pitches against righties have an ISO over .276 and a hard-hit rate of at least 39%. Arihara doesn’t lean on any particular pitch more than 30% so I’m starting my Astros stack with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa. They all have a wOBA over .345 and an ISO over .165 this season, with Bregman dragging those numbers down a little bit. He’s been on fire lately though, averaging almost 11 DK points the last 10 games.
You can basically copy and paste the analysis from last night to tonight for the Yankees. They face a better lefty in John Means, but he’s had his issues and the Yankees saw all their salaries drop. We can mix and match with our favorite Astros, but Aaron Judge and Luke Voit fit very nicely. Means still throws his fastball a good bit and that’s what we’re chasing since he’s been prone to the long ball more often since dealing with an injury. Working with that outline leaves us with some options at pitcher and we can fill in one or two spots with a punt, just like last night.
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