It was another solid day for the article yesterday and we got close to our first clean sweep of the season. Being one Kyle Gibson strikeout away from the sweep is frustrating, but we’ll take a winning night every time. It figures that it was an evening that I went light on, but it’s better to go that route than go big and flop badly. We’re looking to keep on trucking tonight with our Three StriKes for Wednesday July 29 and hopefully we don’t have to hit too many unders tonight.
Montas draws a home matchup with the Rockies today and I’m loving the over on his number for quite a few reasons. Monkeyknifefight.com has him at 5.5 and this is a great spot to go for the over for Three StriKes for Wednesday July 29.
The Rockies on the road have always been a much less lethal offense, registering at 25.5% K rate to RHP last year. Their numbers also included a .666 OPS, .149 ISO and a .285 wOBA which are fairly dreadful. Montas has already flashed some upside in his first start, striking out five hitters in just four innings. He should be able to exceed the 81 pitches he threw in his first start and he had a 26.1% K rate in his partial 2019 season. I’m trusting Montas to be more effective this start and love hitting the over.
Bet – Over 5.5
At the risk of this blowing up in my face, I can’t figure out one good reason for Scherzer’s number to be so incredibly low on MKF and I’d be fairly surprised if other sports books had it like this. This is the most comfortable bet I have for Three StriKes for Wednesday July 29.
We’re talking about one of the absolute premier strikeout pitchers of the past eight seasons or so. Scherzer gave up some runs in his first start against the Yankees but he also mowed down 11 hitters in the process in just 5.1 IP. Of his 27 starts last season, he would have hit this prop in 20 of them. The Blue Jays were a top 10 strikeout team last year against RHP, finishing seventh-worst at a 25.2% clip. In the few games this year they have cut it down to 17.5% but we only need eight strikeouts from Mad Max. I’ll bet the over on that every single time.
Bet – Over 7.5
One of the themes to Three StriKes is likely going to be picking on my Pittsburgh Pirates. An early trend has their K rate jumping up to the current 23.7% from 18.8% last season. Woodruff is in a great spot at a reasonable number here.
Woodruff faced the Pirates four times last season and had two games of six strikeouts and a massive 10 K game, so the ceiling is there. He also struck out five Cubs in his season debut in five innings and 85 pitches, so getting close to 100 is well within reach. Woodruff utilized the fastball and changeup around 80% of the time in his first start and the Bucs finished 22nd and 21st against those pitches last year. With the bump in K’s for the Pirates, this is a good spot for the over. Even Josh Lindblom whiffed four in his first start back from Korea.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record – 7-4
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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