Usually I’m a little annoyed about a 2-1 night but last night I had visions of 0-3 dancing in my head, so I’ll take it. While Max Fried was a flop in the K department, Lucas Giolito and Shane Bieber came through. It looked like they both might not come back out for the money inning but we dodged that bullet. Three StriKes for Wednesday August 5 brings a new day to hunt down the 3-0 day and we’re starting with an absolute rock of a pitcher.
The basic premise here is if you keep giving me Mad Max at needing eight strikeouts, I’m going to take him basically every time.
Now, I will say if your book gives you 8.5 I think I might shy away. Max is ridiculous, but the Mets could throw enough lefties at him to make the strikeouts tougher. He’s only whiffing lefties 25% of the time as opposed to near 49%(!!) to RHH. That’s about the only issue you can find with Scherzer.
He’s hit double digit K’s in both games so far to rack up a ridiculous 39.6% K rate. What’s crazier is his walk rate is through the roof right now at 13.2%. That’s about double his career average so he’s likely to get better as we go.
Bet – Over 7.5 (If Scherzer is too high at your book, Mike Clevinger at 6.5 has my interest as well)
The stalwart for the Cubs has had a little bit of a slow start in the strikeout department by the raw numbers but the metrics beneath look dominant.
His two starts have produced 12 total K’s which seems average. However, he hasn’t thrown over 86 pitches so his K rate is 30%. That’s plenty high enough to target this number and even better, his walk rate is 2.5%. That was really what haunted Darvish in the first half of last year and seeing that under control is great news.
The Royals aren’t an overwhelming strikeout team at 23.1% but they are also dead last in walk rate to RHP at 4.5%. That’s two percentage points lower than the next worst team. They’re only hitting .223 as a team so this seems like a great spot for Darvish to get over 90 pitches and rack up at least seven K’s.
Bet – Over 6.5
It’s the year 2020 and here I am, writing up Randy Dobnak of the Twins to strike out at least four Pirates today. This play for Three StriKes for Wednesday August 5 might seem out of left field, but let me explain.
Dobank is not the prototypical strikeout pitcher, there’s no doubt. He’s only at 19.5% through his 37.1 IP in the majors and the MiLB numbers don’t suggest that’s a mistake. However, the Pirates strike out at the fourth-highest rate in the league. We don’t need to beat a dead horse again. They are the worst offense in the league by every objective measure. Dobnak whiffed four Indians in his last start and threw over 90 pitches. I’m as comfortable as I can be with an unproven pitcher.
Bet – Over 3.5
Record – 18-12
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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