Monday night was kind of a nutty slate in MLB with two games being called due to COVID, one getting washed out and two delayed for lengthy stints. Fortunately we were able to keep our heads above water and go 2-1, only missing out on the Glasnow prop. If I have to lose, I’ll take it against that player.
I’ll be honest, if Monday wasn’t your cup of tea I’m not sure you’re going to be placing many bets tonight. Pitching is incredibly dicey yet again and the only stud is Walker Buehler who is likely to be limited. There’s some plays to be made for Three Strikes for Tuesday July 28 but it’s going to be a low volume day for me personally.
Chasing under isn’t exactly something I want to make a habit of because it’s just a weird kind of sweat. Maybe it’s just me but it’s easier to root for overs. Anyways, Mahle has a 5.5 mark on Monkey Knife Fight and that just seems a hair too high for me.
Mahle made 25 starts last season and only exceeded this number in 10 of those starts, so not even half. His K rate is respectable at 21.9% for his career (and it did jump a touch to 23.2% in 2019) but this is a sizable number for him. Even if he goes six innings, he’d have to average a strikeout per inning and he’s yet to do that in his career.
The Cubs were an average K rate team last year and have fallen right about in the same range so far this season, at just 23.5%. Chicago was also top 12 against the fastball (56.7% of the 2019 arsenal for Mahle) and 13th against the curve (22%). Lastly, Mahle wouldn’t even be making this start if Anthony DeSclafani wasn’t on the IL. This is a nice setup for the under.
Bet – Under 5.5
I guess I sort of just lied to you guys, because we’re about to hit another under. The second bet for Three StriKes for Tuesday July 28 is targeting Braves pitcher Kyle Wright who also sits at 5.5 K’s and I feel like that’s too high for the young man.
First off, it’s interesting to note that Wright does not have a single game of more than four strikeouts across his 25 innings in the bigs. Obviously, that is a painfully small sample size but it’s just a note. Next up is how the Braves have handled their starters so far this season. As Brian Tulloch mentioned in yesterday’s excellent Picks and Pivots, Braves starters have thrown 69, 67, 82 and 70 pitches so far. It would be a bit of an upset if Wright breaks that trend the first time through the rotation.
When we look at Wright in the majors so far, his K rate is just 19% and the ERA is pushing 8.00. The FIP and xFIP are 6.79 and 5.67 respectively, so it certainly points to him not finding his groove thus far. His K rate to LHH drops to 15.4% and the Rays threw five lefties yesterday. About the only slight positive for Wright is the Rays were 21st against the fastball and 14th against the slider in 2019. Those pitches made up about 70% of the pitches thrown by Wright in 2019. This is just not the matchup to chase an over and I feel relatively safe about the under.
Remember how I said it was going to be a light day from me? Well, strap in because we’re targeting Kyle Gibson in the Three StriKes for Tuesday July 28. His K prop is just 4.5 and it’s enticing enough to throw a few bucks on it with this mess of a pitching slate we have.
First, Gibson started 29 games last season and cleared this prop 19 times, which is a pretty solid rate. In 2019, the Diamondbacks were 23rd against the fastball which Gibson uses about half the time. Arizona did rank seventh against his 22% slider, but they were still in the negative value according to FanGraphs. Arizona has come out of the gate poorly against RHP on top of it, whiffing 26.6% of the time. Additionally, the .094 ISO and .271 wOBA are pretty terrible. This matchup sets up Gibson for success, but it’s a reach to call him trustworthy.
Bet – Over 4.5
Record – 5-3 (I’ll emphasize again that bankroll management is key. Go light tonight!)
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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