It sounds like a broken record, but we had yet another 2-1 day on Monday. Now if we averaged 2-1 for the year I’d be pretty happy with a 66% hit rate but I want that 3-0 day. We do have some good options today so let’s continue to chase it down on Three StriKes for Tuesday, August 4.
All Bieber has done so far is pitch 14 innings and struck out an amazing 27 hitters, setting a record in the process. So we would expect his number to be high but this seems lower to me.
You’re getting arguably a top five strikeout arm in the game at just eight strikeouts. That’s interesting enough, let alone looking at the Reds lineup that whiffed six times yesterday against Zach Plesac, a much less accomplished pitcher.
Bieber has a FIP of -0.39 and a 0.50 xFIP to this point which just points to his dominance. He’s introduced a cutter this season to keep hitters off balance. It might not be a strikeout pitch, but it’s still yielded just a .167 average. His K pitches have been the fastball and curveball (22 of 27). The Reds are in the top half of the league against these pitches but I find myself not caring. The 54% K rate for the Biebs isn’t sustainable but 8 K’s tonight is within reach.
Bet – Over 7.5
This game faces two pitchers that I would be interested in betting the strikeout props and might have one on Brandon Woodruff as well. However, the play here is Giolito in my eyes.
The White Sox righty got smacked around in his first start but bounced back in start two with six strong innings and six whiffs. He now draws the Brewers offense that is striking out at 28.0%, the sixth-highest rate in baseball. They also rank 25th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against righty pitching thus far.
So far in two starts, Giolito has cut back on his slider by 10% and has turned to his changeup more. It’s gotten hit so far to the tune of .333 but last year it was only a .191 average and his second best strikeout pitch. The Brewers are bottom 10 against both main pitches and Giolito checks the boxes today for me.
Bet – Over 6.5
I have to give MKF some credit here because they have made today a little difficult. There’s not a ton of obvious numbers to try to attack and there’s arguments to be made for a few. I’m settling on Fried and it will be my lowest bet of the evening.
Is it super comfortable to attack the Blue Jays offense? Not exactly, but they have been off here for a bit. Some of the other numbers for pitchers like Jesus Luzardo, Patrick Corbin and Steven Matz are just too high for me. Fried upped his pitch count from 67 to 82 this past start. The Braves also could use him after Mike Soroka unfortunately tore his Achilles yesterday.
Fried has struck out about a batter per inning over the course of his 237 innings in the bigs. That’s also been consistent through two starts this year. The Blue Jays have 61 plate appearances against LHP this year (right about average despite their bizarre schedule) and they have whiffed a massive 31.1% of the time. They are also bottom two in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Fried should go six here and his averages would say he hits six strikeouts today.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record – 16-11
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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