We took a day off because the props were just not that great yesterday. It was proven right because the plays I was considering would have all lost. Sometimes, the best bet is the one you don’t make so it was a good day to skip. Today’s props are also a little tough but it’s absolutely better than Monday. We just missed a perfect Sunday by a combine two K’s. The process is working so let’s get into Three StriKes for Tuesday 8.11!
The last time we made this play, Scherzer left after one whole inning and burned us quite badly. Scherzer says he’s healthy now so I’m buying back in and the prop is too low for Mad Max. Don’t forger to come on over to DK Sportsbook and gamble along with us!
Anytime I can get Scherzer under eight strikeouts, I’m going to take that risk. It’s not exactly the dream matchup on paper, as the Mets can put 4-5 LHH in the lineup. Scherzer’s K rate is under 25% to that side of the plate but three Mets LHH have a K rate over 23% to RHP.
In his first two full starts, Mad Max hit double digit strikeouts in both. He also threw 99 and 112 pitches so there’s zero concern about pitch count, which is huge in today’s game. Bet on the talent before anything else.
Bet – Over 7.5
I’m as surprised as you that I’m writing up Dylan Bundy to strike out seven hitters tonight but I really believe in what he’s doing right now. I think he’s a really solid play in Three StriKes for Tuesday 8.11.
In his three starts, Bundy has exceeded this number in all three and is coming off a double digit performance against Seattle. Like Scherzer, pitch count looks to not be an issue. He’s thrown 90, 90 and 107 pitches so far.
Bundy has been singularly dominant against RHH with a massive 45.7% K rate and a 0.51 FIP. That’s especially important because the majority of the Oakland hitters that we fear are RHH. Matt Olson is about the lone exception. Bundy has used his slider more and is getting a 23.8% whiff rate on it. Oakland rates 18th vs the slider and I’m rolling with Bundy tonight.
Bet – Over 6.5
I had thoughts about Luis Castillo against the Royals but 7.5 K’s is a little too high for my taste. I’ll try to attack the much lower number with Alex Cobb in Three StriKes for Tuesday 8.11.
Now this pick might look a little tough if you view the Phillies K rate to RHP so far. They have the lowest rate in the league at just 16.1% but they also have the second-fewest plate appearances against RHP. That’s what happens when most of your games get postponed. I don’t think that number will be accurate as the year goes on.
No less than six of the projected Phillies have a K rate to RHP over 20% since the start of 2019. Cobb has been in the mid-eighties for his pitch count but we’re only looking for four strikeouts. Cobb’s 24.2% K rate so far this year should carry him, as should his 28.6% K rate to RHH.
Bet – Over 3.5
Record – 25-20
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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