We were once again haunted by one mediocre performance as Frankie Montas cost us the elusive perfect day on Wednesday. The plus side is Max Scherzer cleared his number with ease (and made sure I had no egg on my face) and Brandon Woodruff smashed his number. All told, it was another good day that built the bankroll and now we’re ready to roll into Three StriKes for Thursday July 30.
Castillo started off his year with a bang, striking out 11 Tigers over the course of six innings in his first start. The matchup takes a jump up today against the Cubs but I’m still going after one of the most talented pitchers in baseball.
If we look back at 2019, Castillo faced these Cubbies four times and totaled six, six, eight and 10 strikeouts in those games. Being only one strikeout away from clearing this number in two starts is encouraging. More encouraging is the Cubs are really struggling to make contact against RHP early on. In the first week, they are sporting a 28% K rate to RHP, fourth-worst in the league.
Castillo had a K rate of 28.9% in 2019 (and obviously that’s much higher through one start so it’s just science or something) which is a nice match. About the only slight negative is the 2019 pitching data. Castillo leaned on the fastball and changeup combo about 88% of the time. The Cubs were top 12 against both pitches, but when everything else lines up for an elite pitcher I tend to not be too worried. Castillo threw 91 pitches the first outing and is ready to roll into this spot.
Bet – Over 6.5
Update – There is some nasty weather in the forecast so if you’re passing on Castillo, I would recommend going with the Over on Brady Singer at 5.5 against the Tigers.
It’s Dinelson Lamet SZN and I’m actually surprised at myself that he wasn’t the first play out of the gate. I’m going to be writing Lamet up many times this season and tonight is no exception.
The Giants might be coming off a game where they hit four home runs at home, but Lamet is an excellent strikeout pitcher and has a reasonable number here. It will be interesting to monitor how the new dimensions in San Francisco play out. It also doesn’t matter for Lamet in my opinion.
Lamet only pitched five innings in his first start which equated to just 80 pitches, but still whiffed eight D-Backs. Lamet has never had a K rate below 28.7% in his time in the majors and it jumped to 33.6% last season. He is almost exclusively a fastball/slider pitcher and the Giants were bottom eight to those pitches last year. That’s also matching with this year on the fastball, though the slider they are 10th (barely in the positive). With the Giants striking out at a 25% clip so far, this is a great spot for Lamet.
Bet – Over 6.5
I was a little torn on the third player today. Brady Singer was intriguing against a sub-par Tigers offense but in the end, we’re sticking with the stud in the tougher matchup because I think there is real value for Bieber at just 5.5.
Bieber was completely lights out in his first start, striking out 14 Royals in just six innings. It’s safe to say he was ready to roll and even against the Twins, 5.5 is just too low for a pitcher of his caliber. He faced Minnesota five times last year and exceeded 5.5 in three of those starts, hitting double digits in one of them. Bieber also posted a 30.1% K rate over the course of 2019, which is plenty high enough to target just six strikeouts in a game.
Make no mistake, Minnesota is a scary offense. Early on, they lead the league in wOBA, wRC+, OPS and ISO against RHP. They are still striking out at a 22.6% clip. That’s not egregious but there’s enough room for Bieber to hit his number even if he gives up a couple of runs.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record – 9-5
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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