Welcome into the inaugural edition of Three StriKes!! I’m super pumped to be bringing this article to the WinDaily team this season and looking forward to winning some money. We’re looking at my three favorite strikeout props, hence the Three StriKes for Thursday July 23. If you’re interested in learning a bit more of the process, I do have an intro right here.
With Thursday being a short slate, we’ll talk about the top three pitchers on the slate but I’m not sure I’ll be betting three tonight. If I do, it will likely go down to a quarter unit instead of a normal half unit in some cases and will be noted as such. Also, I will always put at least a quarter unit on a parlay of all three bets. When we get all three right, we may as well make it worth it.
The very first pitcher ever written up for Three StriKes is near and dear to my heart, Gerrit Cole. As a point of reference, almost all of my betting will be done on DraftKings Sportsbook as that’s the most convenient for me personally. So when talking about the lines, they’ll be as accurate as they can at the time of writing for that site. Cole has opened up at 7.5 strikeouts at -155. While the return might not be great, this is an easy over in my eyes.
First off, he threw 87 pitches in his most recent tune up so workload isn’t a concern. Secondly, only seven of his 33 starts last year produced under eight strikeouts. That’s a very comfortable rate and the Nationals whiffed 21% of the time last year against righty pithing. Losing Anthony Rendon won’t help that mark. We have the preeminent strikeout pitcher from 2019 and his line isn’t even the highest in his own game.
Bet – Over 7.5 K’s
This one is a little tougher and whichever way we bet is going to be just a quarter unit for Three StriKes for Thursday. This would be a line I might normally skip on a bigger slate but let’s have some fun.
Scherzer is set at 8.5 K’s and there are arguments for either side. Here’s the good news for Scherzer and one of the main reasons I lean to the over – he was dominant to RHH in 2019 and there’s a projected seven of them for the Yankees. Mad Max whiffed RHH at a 38.6% clip and held them down to a 0.65 HR/9. He also gave up just a .193 average, 1.62 FIP and a 2.22 xFIP.
Additionally, the Yankees did strikeout at a 23.1% clip last year to RHP. That was virtually without Giancarlo Stanton, who whiffed 31.1% of the time in 2018 (he missed almost all of 2019). What Scherzer comes down to is if he can keep the ball in the yard against this powerful Yankees lineup.
New York against RHH raked for power, ranking third in ISO at .218 and OPS at .820. For all of Stanton’s flaws, he also helps in this category. My view is Scherzer gives up a couple runs, but can control this RHH heavy lineup. I just won’t put a ton on it.
Bet – Small wager on Over 8.5 K’s
Just because there’s only two games doesn’t mean we can’t have Three StriKes for Thursday! Kershaw does not currently have a K prop set yet. This will be a normal occurrence because I will be writing the night before, but that’s ok. We’ll discuss some of the stats and we’ll set a line that we feel comfortable with and go from there.
In 2019, Kershaw threw his fastball and slider for a combined 83.1% of his pitches. That’s a fantastic match against the Giants pitch data from 2019, as they ranked 28th vs the fastball and 24th vs the slider. That’s a strong checkmark for Kershaw and his 26.8% K rate from last season. He also has thrown 90 pitches in sim games, so we can feel comfortable with the workload.
There are a couple small drawbacks for Kershaw in this matchup. For one, his HR/9 last year jumped to 1.41. That’s easily the highest of his career so it was technically never easier to tag Kershaw for a bomb. The flip side to that is the Giants only had a .142 ISO, so it remains to be seen if they can take advantage of the long ball.
The other small knock is the Giants were not a big strikeout team against LHP at 23%. That was dead average at 16th among the league, so it wasn’t a glaring weakness. Still, this is not a lineup that should scare you at all. I’m hoping for a 5.5 K prop, but it’s likelier to be 6.5 K’s.
Bet – 5.5 is an easier over, I’m likely to still hit Over 6.5
Parlay – Cole and Kershaw over as Kershaw came in at my preferred 5.5
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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