Last night was a real heartbreaker at the end. We nailed Zach Plesac and things were looking good for Chris Paddack and Clayton Kershaw, at least for out props. Right as Paddack hit his mark, Kershaw got (justifiably) yanked one strikeout short. We’re still having a pretty good overall season so far but the close calls are annoying. We dive in today looking for the perfect day and we have a plethora of ace quality arms for Three StriKes for Sunday 8.9!
We do have some bigger name aces but with big names come big numbers. I’m starting here with Woodruff at a number that is way too low for a pitcher of his caliber. Don’t forget to get in on the action over at DraftKings Sportsbook!
The righty for the Brewers has been dominating lineups his first three starts with a 31.8% K rate and a 61% ground ball rate. It’s little wonder that his ERA sits at 2.08 and the xFIP is only 2.39. Woodruff has at least six strikeouts in two of his three starts so far this season.
The Reds are quite good against the fastball this season at sixth overall in the league, which is a small concern. They also aren’t the biggest strikeout team but are at 23.5% which is usable in this spot. If the number was any bigger, I would pass but I feel comfortable with six strikeouts.
Bet – Over 5.5
Lamet has already faced the D-Backs once and had his best strikeout game of the season with eight. I think this is a good spot to repeat that and his number as a slight underdog really looks great for Three StriKes for Sunday 8.9.
Just looking at his K rate of 25% might make it seem like he’s not a great bet to hit seven strikeouts. However, that rate is dragged down by his last start against the Dodgers. He pitched a strong 5.2 innings against one of the best lineups in the game but only struck out two hitters. Chris Paddack whiffed six last night and Lamet is the better strikeout artist. Arizona is dead last against the fastball and under 1.0 on FanGraphs rating agains the slider. These are the two pitches Lamet throws and I love he’s the underdog here.
Bet – Over 6.5
Yes, we do have aces on this slate but on the other side of this game, Jacob deGrom is at 8.5. That’s a big number even for deGrom so I’m sticking with Lopez in Three StriKes for Sunday 8.9.
The young righty was fantastic in his first start of the year with seven strikeouts on just 61 pitches. He should be able to get up into the 80 range in this one and the Mets are closing in on a 24% K rate on the season. Lopez is kind of a difficult play to back with stats because 2019 was such a rough year for him. Still, he is very talented and has always had the ability to figure things out. This number at an underdog price is very appealing and I’m in for five.
Bet – Over 4.5
Record – 24-18
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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