Well everyone as the old saying goes – Mama said there’d be days like this. Yesterday’s edition was shambles, with an 0-3 mark on the day. The only small salvaging point was I did drop a Yu Darvish play in Discord. Obviously that doesn’t count to the overall record, but it does show why you should be hanging with us. Let’s burn the tape from yesterday and get after Three StriKes for Saturday August 1.
The big righty burned me once this season but I’m not foolish enough to bet the under on him again, especially at this number.
In his first start, Glasnow whiffed nine Braves on just 72 pitches, including 14 swinging strikes. Baltimore surprisingly sits as the fourth-best K rate to RHP so far but that doesn’t scare me at all. Glasnow jumped to a 33% K rate last season and the Orioles were bottom half against the fastball and the curve last season. This is going to be a tough task for them and Glasnow should get close to 90 pitches in this one.
Bet – Over 6.5
Alright so if you read the early version of this yesterday, this won’t be a surprise to you. I wrote up Bauer yesterday but he got bumped to Saturday due to rainout. The matchup hasn’t changed and the number is still enticing.
Bauer does have the same small concern that may have reared its head for Castillo last night. Pitchers against the same team twice in a row are a touch more risky. I still stand by that risk mitigates a little bit when a pitcher like Bauer draws the heaviest strikeout team against RHP since 2019. He’s shown his ceiling by striking out double digit Tigers the first time around. I’m perfectly fine chasing seven in this spot.
So, the first two plays I’m feeling pretty comfortable with. It’s difficult to find a third one that I feel a ton of comfort with, so I would bet this leg the lowest amount and dial back your parlay bet.
Chatwood has always had some issues with walks. For his career, it’s 11.9% and that can be a problem in an instant. However, the Pirates offense continues to simply not be major league caliber. They once again only produced one run last night until dumpster fire Craig Kimbrel gave up homers in the top of the ninth. We talked about the Pirates seeing their K rate jump to near 30% this year. Chatwood surprised with eight K’s in his first start but I think even a sub-par pitcher has a shot at five against the Pirates right now.
Bet – Over 4.5
Record – 11-8
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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