Friday was another very solid night for us, going 2-1. Trevor Bauer destroyed his prop while Aaron Civale gave us a bit of a sweat. Yusei Kikuchi was a big letdown, but a good lesson as well. Pitchers can show us something new and improved through 2-3 starts. That doesn’t mean they are always going to be a way different pitcher all of the sudden. It was a good gamble to take but remember the sample size we’re dealing with. Without further ado, let’s figure out who we like for Three StriKes for Saturday 8.8.
Today you’ll see props from DraftKings SportsBook because they have a whole bunch up early. Make sure to hit that link if you’re playing there today! We’re heading right back to the well in the Cleveland/Chicago matchup. There are precious few aces for Three StriKes for Saturday 8.8 and Plesac has a number that just is too small yet again.
Plesac gets the same number that Civale did yesterday and Plesac has actually been the better strikeout pitcher this year. He’s jumped his K rate from 18.5% last year to 32.1% this season. That might seem odd, but there’s a couple reason to believe in that change remaining mostly true through 2020.
First, he was a strikeout pitcher in the minors. His last two seasons produced a 24.8% K rate and a 30.7% mark. Last year’s 18.5% could be chalked up to learning on the job in the majors. Secondly, he’s using his secondary pitches more. He’s getting a whiff on his change and slider about 25% of the time on average. Last season it average about 15% of the time so you can see it’s a dramatic shift. It’s a small fear that the White Sox are the best slider team in baseball right now, but they are middle of the road vs the change. I feel good about Plesac reaching five K’s with Chicago’s 24.8% K rate.
Bet – Over 4.5
I mentioned we don’t have a ton of aces so when we get a pitcher that’s at least close to it, we should try and pounce. Paddack doesn’t have the best number I’ve ever seen but it’s an underdog so I’m more interested.
Paddack really has a great matchup via the pitch data and that’s what we’re going to hope carries him. Arizona is bottom five vs the fastball/change combo that Paddack favors heavily.
This isn’t to say the matchup is perfect. Arizona is the second-best strikeout team in the majors to RHP. They are under 19% so far which is a very low number. Paddack hasn’t quite found his groove yet with just a 23.4% K rate after nearly 27% last season. This is very much a case of betting on the talent. I don’t believe Paddack stays at a 23.4% K rate. He hasn’t even thrown over 90 pitches yet but he should be more than fine to go over that. Last season, Paddack hit six strikeouts in 15 of 26 starts and I’ll happily chase the underdog.
This is the one ace we do have on the slate and even at the biggest number, Kershaw is also an underdog.
He does only have one start under his belt but he dazzled with six strikeouts on just 81 pitches. Kershaw was throwing over 90 before he hit the IL so I think the pitch count aspect is there. Even last year when Kershaw was a bit more hittable than we’re accustomed to, he whiffed nearly 27% of the hitters he faced.
The pitch data is in Kershaw’s favor as well, with the Giants being near the bottom of the league against the fastball and very average vs the slider. Even though they strike out just 20% of the time against LHP, Kershaw is still a different animal. Let’s go after him while he’s healthy.
Bet – Over 6.5
Record – 22-17
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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