Faithful readers, we have a problem. I didn’t notice it until now but we’ve had a consistent theme lately in our run of some bad luck. We have a cover jinx, just like the Madden franchise. The last six cover pitchers have failed to hit their props, some in spectacularly bad fashion. We’re switching it up today and using just a generic photo. Three StriKes for Saturday 8.15 is a little bit tough but I really do like some of the numbers we have on this slate.
This one is the “easiest” call of the slate as Bieber has yet to fall under his K prop in four starts. He also gets the same cupcake matchup that Civale couldn’t handle last night.
Bieber has hit at least eight strikeouts in every start and has double digits in two of the four. The 42.6% K rate is the third best among starters and is eye-popping to say the least. When he gets the highest K rate team in the league, this is an easy call as far as wanting the over.
Bet – Over 7.5
Bieber is about the only one I absolutely love, so manage the bankroll accordingly tonight. It’s a tough card but Gausman’s number at an underdog price is one I want to chase.
For one, Gausman has surpassed this number in his last three starts. That’s nice to hear, but they came in Coors Field, against the Dodgers and vs the Padres. Racking up 21 K’s over 16 innings in those games is impressive.
Also impressive? His 13.6% swinging strike rate. He’s nastier to RHH which is a good thing against the A’s, who are already down Ramon Laureano to suspension. Oakland is 10th in the league in K rate to RHP with Laureano in the lineup. Gausman is prone to blowups but this spot sets up pretty nicely for him.
Bet – Over 5.5
This isn’t the best spot for strikeouts but we’re betting on a low number with a talented pitcher.
The Angels are over 21% for their K rate to RHP, which isn’t something that I’m normally looking to attack. Buehler himself has only hit is strikeouts once in three starts. However, I like the fact that his pitch count continues to rise and we should get over 90 pitches tonight.
Last season saw Buehler rack up a 29.2% K rate over 182.1 IP. Although that’s dropped to 20.7% so far, we all know that’s not going to stick and was due to his late start in camp. Even in a tougher K matchup, you don’t get this number for a bona fide ace every day.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record – 30-27
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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