We’re back after the weekend and it’s likely a good thing there was no article for Sunday. I personally bet on K props for Shohei Ohtani, Corey Kluber and Mitch Keller. One didn’t record an out, one left after one inning and one recorded just two strikeouts. The good news is readers didn’t miss anything and we’re all going to have days like this at the sportsbook.
It’s also a new day so there’s not a better time to put Sunday behind me. Before we dive in, I’d like to clarify exactly how this is going to be laid out. We’re going to reference monkeyknifefight.com as far as the props go since they post the night before (we also have a handy dandy link to go check it out right here). I’m in Pennsylvania and MKF hasn’t made their way here yet so I play on DraftKing Sportsbook, which is where my record will be kept. Now, let’s look at Three StriKes for Monday July 27 and see which props we’re chasing. We might even have some history made in this article!
I’m a massive Glasnow fan and think he could be a Cy Young candidate for the AL this season if everything goes right for him. However, his start to the year has been bumpy. He was behind the team in getting ready so he only threw three innings in his last simulated start. It doesn’t seem like a good idea to count on him for Three StriKes for Monday July 27…if we only bet on overs. MKF has his K prop at 6.5, which he would really need to be efficient to hit seven.
Atlanta was just average as far as K rate in 2019, sitting at 23.2% for the season. It’s not exactly the best spot for Glasnow’s main two pitches in the fastball and curveball either (a combined 87%, I might add). The Braves were top eight against both and ranked third against the curve in 2019. Glasnow even specifically mentioned having issues with the curve in his last “start”. With the Rays saying he’ll take it inning by inning and seeing Blake Snell pitch two innings yesterday, I’m going under for the first time in this article.
Bet – Under 6.5, possibly still under 5.5 but will monitor any news on pitch counts
In a weird twist, Three StriKes for Monday July 27 is going to feature another under with Josh James. I’m just a little surprised to see his line up at 6.5, given the fact he has two career games over said number.
That’s probably a little unfair since he was being utilized as a reliever almost exclusively last season, but still. The only Astros pitcher to exceed that mark so far has been Justin Verlander. Even with a full pitch count, this number could be a lot to ask from James.
So far, the Mariners have whiffed 10, 10 and seven times total in each game. That does still equate to a 30.8% K rate through three games (and is similar to the 2019 rate) but it’s difficult to trust James at this number. Yes, his career K rate is 36.1% but that’s as a reliever in 51 of 55 career games. Most pitchers regress when moving to the starting role, even if just a bit. If he stays at 6.5, it’s an under for me but I’m curious where he lands elsewhere. For instance, if DK has him at 4.5 I’m likely to hit the over.
Bet – Under on 6.5, over 4.5 and potentially fading at 5.5
We’re talking about Three StriKes for Monday July 27 and the tilt between the Marlins and Orioles is between two first place teams. The 2020 baseball season has already produced some weird results. Anyways, I’m liking Lopez at the lower number of 4.5 for this game.
Lopez doesn’t have any type of sparkling career numbers to bank on. His K rate was only 20.3% in 2019 which isn’t typically something we would be chasing. However, he was rushed to the majors by most accounts and is still only 24 years old. His fastball was up a tick last year and the K rate was the best he had shown so far.
Additionally, I’m not convinced on the Baltimore offense. I know, I’m really putting myself out there on a limb but the .279 wOBA and .633 OPS so far isn’t scary. The K rate through three games is 21.7%, which is close to in line from 2019. The O’s were also 23rd vs the changeup last season, which is the best whiff percentage pitch for Lopez at 17.5% in 2019. In Miami, I think this is a good spot to chase Lopez.
Bet – Over 4.5
WELP. We’re updating our work here due to the Marlins facing COVID breakout. Hopefully everyone involved gets healthy fast including all the workers around the team.
It’s been a long road for the Tigers righty, but Fulmer is scheduled to take the mound tonight for the first time since 2018. Normally that would lead me to not bet on him at all, but the line for his strikeouts is enticing on MKF.
Fulmer is getting a little bit of rope here as manager Ron Gardenhire saying that he’ll pitch 2-3 innings and could go more if the three innings go quickly. This is only going to be a half unit bet. If you need a reminder why, just look at Ohtani’s line from yesterday.
It does have to be stated that Fulmer has never been a big strikeout pitcher in his career. Through 456 total innings, he sits at a mark of just 18.9%. This is more chasing such a low number because even average major league pitchers can strike out two hitters in 2-3 innings of work. Last year Kansas City whiffed at a 23.0% rate to RHP and through the first three games, it’s 36.7%. That’s slanted by facing the Cleveland starters, but still. Fulmer can take advantage of this spot.
Bet – Over 1.5 at a half unit, fading anything higher
Record – 3-2
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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