Thursday was another productive day and this one came without a loss. I stuck with my guns and bet on Luis Castillo but he got rained out, so the play didn’t stand. Shane Bieber annihilated his 5.5 prop and Dinelson Lamet cruised as well. It’s always great to have a stress free day and we continue on with Three StriKes for Friday July 31 to see which pitchers we’re chasing down! Make sure to hop over to Monkey Knife Fight to get those picks in!
Bonus – I can’t in good faith make this one of my Three Strikes and turn around to take credit for a win. However, as of 10:12 Thursday night, Jack Flaherty sits at 1.5 strikeouts. This is an obvious hammer on the over. You obviously won’t get this at another sports book.
Update – The game has been postponed
Bauer has a fantastic number here and I would expect it to be a bit higher elsewhere, but we may as well take advantage of it where we can.
MKF had Trevor Bauer as the starter when this was written, but it is in fact Luis Castillo who sits at 7.5 K’s.
Castillo has already faced this Tigers squad in his first game, where he struck out a whopping 11 hitters. He has a three season track record of a K rate above 23% and the matchup against the Tigers literally couldn’t get better statistically speaking. Detroit led the league in K rate to RHP last season and find themselves in the same spot in 2020 by 4.5%.
The pitch data really works in favor of Castillo as well. Detroit was 29th against the fastball and 30th against the changeup in 2019. Those pitches are about 88% of Castillo’s repertoire and it’s a perfect match for us. There is something to be said with pitchers facing the same team twice in a row. The results can be a little less than you’re hoping for the second time around, but the Tigers are a bad offense and Castillo has my full confidence, even at a higher number.
Bet – Over 7.5
This is another one that’s going to be a fairly easy call. Lest we forget, the Angels will be without Mike Trout who is on paternity leave so the road is even easier for McCullers in this spot.
McCullers is working his way back from Tommy John surgery but his first start of the season went extremely well, pitching six innings striking out six and only giving up two runs. The Angels can be a very difficult team to strike out, as they sported the third-best K rate last year and are in the same spot in the early going.
Still, without Trout and with the number being so low I trust McCullers here. The innings haven’t been there for McCullers over the past three years but the K rate has always been above 25.5%. The Angels were top 12 against the fastball and curve which isn’t the best for McCullers but he can definitely strike out four hitters.
Bet – Over 3.5 (MKF has since moved the line to 5.5, and I’m still going over)
We’re back to picking on the Giants for our last pick of the night. If the play is working, you keep running until the other team stops it…right?
Minor whiffed six in his first start of the season throwing over 90 pitches, so that aspect seems safe. The Giants really struggled against LHP last year, striking out the eighth-most and finishing in the bottom five in OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+.
Another aspect that works in Minor’s favor is the pitch data. He’s a three pitch guy, utilizing the fastball, slider and change. San Francisco finished in the bottom 12 against all three pitch types last year and this just isn’t an offense we should be scared of.
Bet – Over 5.5
Record – 11-5
Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!
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