We were so close yesterday. Dylan Bundy threw a complete game and stuck out 10 hitters. Luis Castillo was iffy for fantasy, but easily soared past his prop. All we needed was Tyler Chatwood. He whiffed two in the first and we were on our way…until he imploded and finished one K short. It’s a fun slate as far as pitching tonight. The frustration from last night is gone (along with some not nice words) and we’re ready to dig on in for Three StriKes for Friday 8.7!
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Bauer has been on a roll and I have to have some decent trust in a pitcher to go over 7.5 K’s. Eight is a high number to achieve but things really set up well for Bauer in this matchup. The K rate is 42.5% which is just silly even in two starts. Milwaukee really can’t make contact with a 29% strikeout rate so far, second-worst in the majors.
The nice part apart Bauer’s pitch usage is he’s not overly reliant on any secondary offering. He uses a slider/cutter/curve mix between 12.5% and 17.1%. That means if something isn’t working, he has other options. Pitcher like Castillo has to haves changeup and fastball combo working or he’s going to get smacked. Bauer definitely still can get smacked but I don’t see any metrics that say it happens tonight.
Bet – Over 7.5
This is likely a good time to point out that we should be going light for Three StriKes for Friday 8.7. There’s plays that I definitely like but we’re relying on non-ace pitchers. Keep that in mind with your bankroll.
I wrote about Kikuchi a bit more in-depth in Aces and Bases so I don’t want to go full repeat. The bottom line here is Kikuchi has shown serious signs of improvement so far in 2020, especially in the K rate department. Are those improvements here to stay? It’s impossible to say from two starts in all honesty. That’s why we manage our bankroll accordingly.
If they are real and tangible through the season, Kikuchi should have little issue passing this prop. Colorado was a K machine team outside of Coors last year and through 50 plate appearances this year, that rate sits at 30%. I’m as comfortable as you can be with a question mark like Kikuchi.
Bet – Over 4.5
Another reason to tread lightly, Civale has such a low number that I can’t help myself even in a fairly tough spot.
The White Sox have used the injection of Luis Robert and others to jump start their offense a bit. They are top 10 in all the offensive categories that we look at except for ISO (which helps negate the matchup a bit). Chicago is also 0.5% from being a top 10 strikeout team against RHP which is why we’re looking at Civale.
The 37.5% K rate for Civale almost certainly won’t stick around. He never exceeded 26.1% in the minors and his first 57.2 IP in the majors was only 20.3%. Still the number is low enough that we should be interested and Civale is a better bet than the rest of the field this evening.
Record – 20-16
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