Well….that was not fun at all. After last week when the cash game lineup went over 190 DK, we dropped by about 90 this week. I felt this week was a difficult week since so many games had weather concerns. It forced me into some plays that I didn’t love when I wrote Game by Game and the results showed. Let’s dig into this ugly post-mortem for NFL Cash Lineup Review Week 8.
This week was fairly easy to me. I only had two players in consideration at the start of the week, Joe Burrow and Derek Carr. With Burrow, his volume is incredibly hard to touch. He was over $6,000 but it wasn’t by a lot. Carr caught my eye due to matchup and frankly how well he’s played all season to this point. Now, would I have loved to spend on Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes? Of course, but salary appeared to be tight with no glaring cash-safe values.
Once the week kept going, Carr and Burrow fell off the table. Not only did both had weather concerns, but Burrow was missing three offensive lineman. Considering his line struggles when it’s healthy, I wanted to avoid that potential disaster. Somewhat reluctantly, I settled for Jimmy Garoppolo. I mentioned in GxG that I much preferred Carr since he had been so much more consistent. While Jimmy G was popular, he also fell under three DK points due to poor play and injury. It was a flop by every angle but seeing a good offense like San Fran play so poorly in Seattle was a shock.
This was the position that I wanted to spend up on the most, to no surprise. I felt Kareem Hunt was a lock, especially when the weather turned. He was under $7,000 and was a workhorse in every sense of the word in a great spot. Once again, the process was right by the result was terrible. Hunt only had 14 carries (what are you doing Cleveland) and was under 10 DK. Fortunately, Hunt didn’t kill us because of being chalk.
Next up was a choice between Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara. On DK, most preferred Kamara but Henry still came in about 35%. I preferred Henry due to matchup and how I felt the Saints offense shaped up. Yes, they were down a lot of weapons in this game. New Orleans was missing at least three receivers and I knew Kamara was a threat for 10 receptions and 150 scrimmage yards. I felt there was a chance that the Saints offense would just be poor with who they had available. Henry had a chance for 100+ rushing yards which is the three point bonus and I felt multi-TD upside. Kamara did out-score Henry, but it also showed Henry is close to game-script close. He still had 18 carries in a game they trailed almost the whole way.
The third spot was were things got interesting. The field went with Jamaal Williams, and that made perfect sense. To me, it fell between Williams, Gio Bernard and Josh Jacobs. Gio was out of contention with the O-Line woes and I went Jacobs. I felt that he would get 20-25+ touches and he had 31 rush attempts. Seeing him get stuffed at the goal line multiple times was especially cruel. Williams out-scored Jacobs by about three.
Other players in consideration were –
Dalvin Cook – the questionable tag after a practice scared me and that was a massive mistake. He wasn’t highly rostered but if you played him you were certainly in business.
DeeJay Dallas – the uncertain nature of the Seattle backfield combined with the late kickoff made me fade this situation. Had I know for sure that Chris Carson was out, Dallas was a lock at RB-minimum and being about the only option.
Myles Gaskin – cheap volume always interests me, but a rookie QB wasn’t the most attractive spot.
All in all, we didn’t miss the running back pool too badly at all. Hunt was horrible but he was the chalkiest of the bunch.
This position told the story for me. I went with the trio of Davante Adams, A.J. Green and Kendrick Bourne. Adams had weather concerns but he was also playing backup corners. When a receivers scores 30.3 DK, you can’t really have too many issues with that performance individually.
Bourne was my favorite punt of the slate and he went 4x, which is all I could hope for and even a bit more. Eight receptions for 81 yards was a great score and lapped the chalkier Denzel Mims. Green was the player that dragged everything down. After 24 targets the past two weeks, Green dropped to five this week and was awful. Perhaps I overestimated his role and maybe Cincy was dangling him as trade bait? Seeing Auden Tate get work out of absolutely nowhere was incredibly tilting.
Since I went pricey with the backs, the player that hurt to leave out was Keenan Allen. I knew he would be popular and he was wildly underpriced, but you can’t fit everyone. I thought about playing Allen ahead of Jacobs even though traditionally I don’t play anything but three backs in cash. Either way, the combo of Green’s flop and Allen scoring 20+ yet again really hurt this week.
Brandon Aiyuk – With Seattle’s defense not scaring anyone and no Deebo Samuel, I loved his outlook but couldn’t quite fit him. Hence, Bourne took that slot and was only eight points behind Aiyuk.
Tyler Boyd – Overall he was my favorite Bengals receiver but the $2,000 difference between him and Green was the difference.
D.K. Metcalf/Tyler Lockett – I had a lineup with Metcalf and Allen in it if I had to fade Adams with the wind. That knowledge doesn’t hurt at all…not at all.
I only looked at two options this week. Darren Waller was my favorite overall option at the start of the week but was going to be hard to get him. I could’ve fit him if I played Dallas, but there was too much uncertainty in that scenario. It paid off somewhat since Waller had such a poor outing. That Browns game may have been uglier than my lineup.
Since I couldn’t really afford Waller comfortably, I was fine punting the position. Enter Irv Smith, who I figured would have a positive game script. He had seen his snaps and targets increase before the bye week. I didn’t account for the Dalvin Cook show. Kirk Cousins threw under 20 times, which really kills any of his receivers. The good news was I only spent $3,000 but 2.6 DK points doesn’t help the cause either.
I hated just about every defense this week outside the very top-end ones in salary. For me, I built the rest of the lineup and knew I would figure it out after that. It just so happened that the Buffalo Bills fit. With Cam Newton struggling badly and missing his top two receivers, I didn’t really look back. They fit, I liked them and had logic behind it. Usually I have more of a process with defenses, but this week was a bit different.
The best possible path this week was to give up Adams. Even though he scored 30 and hit 3x, his salary was very high and wound up costing me at other spots. If Garoppolo could have done anything, it still could have wound up being a good day. At the end, there were too many snowflakes to overcome and we fell short this week.
Thanks for reading NFL Cash Lineup Review Week 7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” Sure, we want to help you win that big DFS tournament. But we want you to have a greater enjoyment of Daily Fantasy Sports while you are doing it. Along the way, you also may learn some life lessons and gain some perspectives you may have never considered before.