It was definitely a bit of a tougher week for the results on my end. Not often in DFS will you hit your cash games with three snowflakes and a quarterback under 20 points. The combo of a few players under 25% that played really well tried to saved my bacon on the day. Let’s discuss who we ended up playing and exactly why we made those plays, just like we always do in NFL Cash Lineup Review Week 11!
This was a tougher week for quarterbacks in general. A lot of the top tier options were not on the slate for one reason or the other, and only one was in an absolute smash spot in Justin Herbert. As the week went on, Taysom Hill wound up being chalk and I get why. He was under $5,000 and he has the rushing upside that it seemed tough to not fall into 15 DK points.
In my eyes, I felt safer going into the upper end before I played Hill. I had significant worries about the passing production and figured he would need two rushing touchdowns to really smash his salary. That’s exactly what happened, putting me behind the eight ball at this position. I went Lamar Jackson since I felt his upside was sky high in this spot. Tennessee was missing a pass rusher and a safety. That unit has been poor all season. Baltimore has had their own issues but I really believed this was a get right spot for them. The play was to either spend down at Taysom or just go with Herbert.
Also Considered – DeShaun Watson, Ben Roethlisberger
This position turned into a disaster for me. I knew that I wanted Dalvin Cook and he was in the Core Four basically since the word go this week. Cook provided the safe floor that I was hoping, even if he didn’t have a nuclear game. The rest of this position did NOT go well and was another spot that really kneecapped me. Firstly, Adrian Peterson did almost nothing. He was the minimum but I didn’t see 18 rushing yards as a potential outcome. The Detroit offense didn’t score a single point and got nothing done. Last week Mike Davis didn’t matter because he was over 80% rostered. This kind of dud matters when the player is only 23.2% rostered.
Speaking of Davis, he was in the Miles Sanders spot until we knew Teddy Bridgewater wouldn’t be active. That was enough of a concern for me to move to Sanders. Even in a bad weather game, he should have been about locked into 15+ touches. That part happened since he had 19 total but Davis did out-score him and those six points would have been useful. There were a plethora of mid-range options like Duke Johnson, Gio Bernard and Kalen Ballage that were in consideration for me. I felt that since I was happy with the receivers, the backs were good to go. I just never expected Sanders and AD to combine for under 12 points and that is difficult to get around.
Also Considered – Nick Chubb, Antonio Gibson
This position got a lot better but there was a popular player here that went berserk. We had a dud in Jakobi Meyers but he was one of the chalkier players in this format. I usually won’t go after anything involving the Patriots passing game this year, at least in cash. The difference this week was just how cheap Meyers was and his performance without teammate Julian Edelman. Meyers was over 60% of the targets coming into Sunday. Even with some obvious regression, a 30% target share would be huge. Under $5,000 and against a shaky defense was the perfect recipe. Obviously, the field thought so as well.
Perhaps the most shocking play was Diontae Johnson. We make jokes in Discord and on Twitter about my bromance but he was under $6,000 in a glorious matchup and it seemed like everyone was talking about him. After another massive day, I feel like that’s the last time we got Johnson at this price for the foreseeable future.
One of the biggest “misses” on this slate for me was Keenan Allen. I put quotation marks around the word miss because it’s not like I didn’t love Allen. I mean, how could you not against the Jets? However, spending up on quarterback hamstrung the receiver budget. I was happy with Michael Pittman at the salary in the game script projected to be high-scoring. Maybe it wasn’t the most obvious play but Pittman was not the issue in this lineup.
Others Considered – Allen, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb
It seems to be the same song and dance every week. I was either going to spend up or spend down at the tight end spot. On FanDuel, this was a very easy position to fill. They embarrassingly had Taysom as a tight end, making their slate super flex. On DraftKings, there was a bit more of a choice. I was able to afford Mark Andrews without any real issues in my eyes, so he was the plug in. I also considered moving him down to Logan Thomas. That was the lowest I felt comfortable but Andrews was the right call. The other tight end that would have fit was Dallas Goedert, but with Lamar I wanted that stack.
Others Considered – T.J. Hockenson
This is actually a good learning spot. Pay attention when hiring submit on the lineups. I was at work and when Bridgewater got ruled out, I had a couple ideas that I went back and forth with. My intention was to play the Falcons defense at the same price as the Bengals. I didn’t realize I hit Cincy until after lock. Fortunately, that didn’t hurt in the results but it was a poor mistake.
I wanted the Dolphins defense but they just wouldn’t fit with everything else I had. My view is to always build the lineup that you are happy with, then worry about the defense.
This wasn’t a good week as far as results, but it was a good lesson to not let your pride get in the way. I’ve made no secret that I don’t think Hill is a good player, or quarterback. The fact the Saints paid him that much has confounded me for a while. However, I also knew he had rushing upside in the red zone. Rushing yards for a quarterback are the Konami Code of fantasy. He was the cheapest option on the board and allowed almost any other build you wanted. My pride in believing he’s not a good player got in the way and it was not the right move. A simple flip to him and working Keenan Allen in (which is what I had at some points) would have smashed cash games this week. Instead, I had to fall back on the profits from a 4-0 day on the Prop Bets side to save me. Let’s get back at it next week!
63.7 DK points for $23,800 which was about 10 DK points away from the 3x return we aim for.
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