Welcome back NBA DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: 9.3 for Brian. After months of being on pause, the league is back and so is DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top NBA DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this NBA DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
This slate is another two game slate so it’s always going to be important to take some kind of stand. Brian has been in Discord this morning and I could not agree more with him – it’s time to mostly load up on the Toronto/Boston series. That’s going to come with a few exceptions but with the Clippers and Nuggets playing Game 1, that brings us some question marks.
Coach Mike Malone can be finicky with his rotations beyond Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. The matchups and the minutes that got them over the hump with the Utah Jazz may not be ideal vs the Clippers. We don’t knowing for sure how the Nuggets approach Game 1. Michael Porter and other secondary pieces are up in the air. It’s best to mostly fade that side outside of maybe Big Honey (Jokic, best nickname ever for him).
Since we’re looking to stack the first game, it begins with locking in Fred VanVleet. You’re looking at a player who has averaged 40 minutes on the court and 40 DK points through two games. That production has come while shooting 11-38. If his shot remotely falls, he could flirt with 60 DK. VanVleet is simply too talented to continue to struggle from the field.
The next step for me is to lock in a triple stack of Boston in Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. Tatum flashed his scoring prowess once again, scoring 30+ real points and over 50 DK. I think scoring just 21 points in Game 1 is an aberration. Theis has seen steady minutes and still went for 5x last game on just 3 real points.
As for Williams, he was pure dynamite last game before hurting his back. He didn’t pass the eye test after that, but is healthy for this one. He’s still underpriced for the role Coach Brad Stevens has put him in and he’s an easy fill for he C position.
It’s basically a rule right now that if Kawhi Leonard is on a slate, he’s going to be in my lineup. This man is a cold-blooded killer, a silent assassin, a Terminator…whatever phrase you use, it’s accurate. His floor in the Mavericks series was 50 DK. That came in just 30 minutes of court time due to blowout. I don’t believe there’s a safer investment on the slate.
I also believe one of, if not the best value on the slate comes from LA as well. Patrick Beverly is ready to go and guess who’s going to be right in Murray’s face for most of the series? That’s right, Beverly and then even Marcus Morris might punch him in the head. Maybe Morris will get creative and leave tacks on Murray’s seat on the bench, but I digress. Beverly is going to be an easy punt at his price. He should play at least 25 minutes or so tonight, tasked to defend one of Denver’s best.
The main point of today’s article is to stack up Boston/Toronto in a big way. You could fade Tatum and play Pascal Siakam, you could try and catch Marcus Smart going Play Thompson again…there’s a lot of minutes and production to be had for that game. I’ll be anchoring my lineups to that game with the Beverly/Kawhi combo going late.
Let’s jump into Discord and talk strategy today – the small pivots we make can make a massive difference on a two-game slate!
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