Yesterday was mostly good, with only Aaron Nola being the miss. It looked like Tyler Glasnow was headed for disaster but salvaged a solid 19 DK. You really needed Jacob deGrom over Shane Bieber or Glasnow to do extremely well, but I’ll happily keep stacking up good days. We have some talent on Monday’s slate but we could be picking some names that aren’t the biggest on the slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.7.
Pitch Data – FB – 10th CT – 26th CB – 23rd CH – 4th
We’ll get to Max Scherzer in a minute, but Gallen is actually my first choice here. The Giants are only at a 22.3% K rate which is the 10th best to righties, but Gallen is one of the quietest aces in baseball right now. He brings a 27.8% K rate and a 12.3% swinging strike rate into this spot, along with a 1.80 ERA. The 3.57 FIP and 3.66 xFIP do say regression, but not to the extent we have to freak out over. A 96.1% strand rate tends to do that to those metrics.
What I really like with Gallen here is he holds lefties to a .234 wOBA and .169 average. That’s preferable with these Giants and the K rate to that side is still 25.3%. He’s actually averaged more DK points per start than Scherzer and the price difference maybe shouldn’t be $1,200.
Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 4th
We weren’t on Lamet last time out with the matchup and he was fine, but not great. This spot is far different and we’re back on the train tonight. The pitch data might scare me if Lamet wasn’t so talented and didn’t have a 31.7% K rate. The Rockies continue to be a bad offense on the road and has a 24.4% K rate when away from Coors. That includes a 24th ISO and 26th wOBA.
Lamet is fairly equal to both sides of the plate with K rate and wOBA so there’s not a glaring weakness. I’m not a fan normally of the 47.6% fly ball rate but he’s survived it all season long. Missing bats at a 14.4% clip helps and anytime Lamet is under $9,000, he’s got my full attention.
Pitch Data – FB – 30th SF – 5th CH – 30th
The D-Backs are good vs the splitter but it’s such a low usage pitch across the majors that it’s not a deciding factor to me. Additionally, even though Arizona isn’t a big K rate team at just 20.3%, Gausman is just super cheap and doesn’t need eight K’s or more to pay off.
I’m not sure I understand why he’s the cheapest pitcher on the slate. The 4.43 ERA isn’t bad at all and the 3.76 xFIP and 3.09 FIP suggest even better production. He has a 31% K rate and just a 5.3% walk rate. The hard contact is spiked at 48.1% but that’s clearly not killing him. The small worry is the .326 wOBA vs LHH, but this is really not so scary I wouldn’t use him as an SP2 on DK for cash games.
Pitch Data – FB – 21st SL – 7th CH – 7th
It’s absolutely possible that I wind up regretting not putting Max into the cash pile. He’s under $10,500 and that has not been the case often the past couple of years. However, I continue to point out that Scherzer is showing signs of slipping, however minimal. The K rate is 32.5% and many pitchers would love that. It’s the lowest for Scherzer since 2016 and the walks are the highest in a decade. Maybe it’s just the workload. He’s hit at least 170 IP since 2009 and the majority have been over 200. The 395 ERA would be the highest since 2012.
Perhaps my biggest worry is the way the Rays setup. They are generally lefty heavy and Scherzer has legitimately been getting hit by LHH. Not like in past years where it was just for some power either. We’re talking a .307 average, .875 OPS and .369 wOBA over 99 lefties faced. That includes a 1.66 HR/9. He’s probably the likeliest on this slate to whiff double-digit hitters but might give up 3-5 runs in the process.
Pitch Data – FB – 14th CH – 5th CT – 5th CB – 20th
This is only for the brave at heart and is the diciest pick of the bunch. On small slates like MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.7, it sometimes well-calculated gambles can pay off. New York is still quite banged up and whiffs the ninth-highest to LHP at 24.3%. They are 20th or worse in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The highest rank is ISO…at 16th. Not exactly the most frightening numbers.
Ryu’s first two starts were awful. He looked poor, the velocity was down, nothing went right. Since then, he’s not scored under 19 DK in his next six starts. Two of those came against Baltimore, one of the best offenses vs LHP on paper in baseball. His best came against Atlanta, which is also set up well to LHP. Ryu keeps the ball out of the air at 25.2% and the K rate is 27.6%. Most of the field doesn’t pitch against the Yankees, so let’s be different.
Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!
Jordan Montgomery takes the hill for the Yankees tonight and through 77 RHP faced, they’ve tuned him up for a .394 wOBA, .945 OPS and a 2.60 HR/9. Vlad Guerrero and Randal Grichuk both possess ISO’s over .340 to LHP this year and Tellez is at a .345 wOBA himself. It’s a bonus to get both, because DK you can only pick one of Vlad or Rowdy “Roddy” Tellez.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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