We’re back after a day off and the last time we had an article, it went really well for the team! The only miss was Sixto Sanchez, which we didn’t have a big piece of in the first place. Even the Monkey Knife Fight prop smashed to a 5x return! This is the last Friday slate of the season and we’re looking to replicate the big day from Wednesday for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.25!
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For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!
Pitch Data – CT – 25th FB – 4th SL – 21st CB – 2nd
After seeing how chalky Shane Bieber was on Wednesday, I would expect Darvish to be the same in cash because the public didn’t fear the matchup. Tonight features fewer pivots as well, so I’m rolling Darvish in cash. As Brian pointed out in Picks and Pivots, the key for Darvish high the construction of the White Sox lineup.
There are a projected five right handers in the White Sox lineup with a cumulative K rate of 23.2%. Darvish has been lethal to that side of the plate with a .237 wOBA, .537 OPS, 0.36 HR/9 and a 43.3% K rate. There’s a little more danger than I prefer for this price since the Sox are 12th in ISO. However, there’s no reason to shy away from Darvish in cash and maybe not even GPP.
Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 1st
The pitch data isn’t kind to Lamet in this spot but it hasn’t held him back in this matchup. He whiffed seven in the first time he saw the Giants and is absolutely rolling with 32 strikeouts in the past three games. He’s scored at least 29 DK in all three games and this game is a double header, so the complete game bonus isn’t out of reach for Lamet. The overall K rate is through the roof at 35.2% and the hard hit rate is under 40%.
What really works for Lamet is the splits. His K rate is only 2% less to the left side but the rest of the stats are better to that side. LHH only have a .199 wOBA, .426 OPS and a .132 average. There’s five lefties projected for the Giants lineup. With a swinging strike rate of 14.4%, Lamet is an elite arm under $10,000.
Honorable Mention – Carlos Carrasco, though I prefer him in GPP myself
Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 14th SL – 30th CB – 28th
If you decide to take the high/low approach in cash, Urquidy is your man. He’s got some oddball stats in 22.2 IP with just a 13.8% K rate after being above 20% at every level. I’m going to side with the track record here and the 30 DK points Urquidy scored against this Rangers lineup in he last matchup. The swinging strike rate is still a 10% compared with 12% through 41 IP in 2019. There’s not a giant reason the K rate should be so low and might just be some bad variance right now.
His hard rate is under 30% so even when hitters make contact, it’s not doing a ton of damage. The small concerns are the FIP is 4.33 and xFIP is 5.73 compared to the 2.78 ERA, but I believe Urquidy is more talented than he’s shown.
Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 28th
Keller is a pretty uninspiring choice on most night and on his own merits. The K rate is just 15.5% with an 8.8% walk rate, which is a ratio we don’t normally target. Even the swinging strike rate doesn’t offer a lot of hope at 8.8% but he gets the #FlowChart matchup with the Tigers.
They’ve led the league in K rate to RHP at 28% basically from wire to wire this season and Keller does have some ceiling. Of his eight starts, he’s scored over 17 DK points. The reason he’s in GPP is because the other three starts have totaled 9.1 DK points. There’s tangible upside but this start can go sideways in a hurry.
Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw (not sure many will play him and he just posted 27 DK points in Coors Field)
It’s not the best night to catch pitchers in the same game, so we’re just going to try and hit the best two arms on the slate. Take note that the numbers are higher, so the double up is the safest play on the board. Use you bankroll wisely if you go above he 16.5 mark. Remember go to Monkey Knife Fight and use promo code WINDAILY to get a $50 matching bonus and 3 month FREE to Win Daily Sports!
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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