It was overall a pretty solid night, as every single pitcher showed up to some extent and pitched well. I hope you enjoyed some of the top end arms on Monday’s slate because Tuesday does not feature any. It’s a rare slate where there’s no pitcher over $10,000. The options are not the best on paper tonight but we’re going to sort through and find out who we need in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.22.
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Pitch Data – FB – 25th SL – 25th CH – 26th
I suspect that Valdez will be very chalky, which is pretty uncomfortable to be honest. Still, the pitch data lines up perfectly and the K rate for the Mariners to LHP is great for Valdez as well since it’s the third-highest, 27%. The lefty for the Astros has whiffed 26.1% of the hitters he’s faced and featured a 10.2% swinging strike rate, which is enough. When he’s not missing bats, he’s generating a 59.9% ground ball rate which is the third-highest among starters. Valdez has cut the HR/9 to 0.71 and even with a .315 BABIP, the FIP and xFIP are both below 3.05. Everything lines up for Valdez.
Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 29th CH – 23rd
I hate the price, but Dobnak is the #FlowChart pick tonight as a RHP against the Tigers. We know how weak the Detroit offense is against RHP and they are the league leader in K rate to that side of the mound. The big problem is the 13.5% K rate from Dobnak, which is just terrible for a starter that is approaching $9,000. On many slates, I would skip right on by. However, Dobnak is holding the HR/9 to just 0.58 in major part because he leads the league in ground ball rate at over 62%. The Tigers are average in that metric but you’re hoping Dobnak keeps the runs low and gets a couple extra K’s in the process.
Pitch Data – FB – 4th CH – 1st CB – 15th SL – 11th
Snell has been fine this year but not his normal dominant self to some extent. The K rate is still great at 30% but the HR/9 has been sky high with a 1.62 mark. One of his biggest issues is that he’s not even averaging five innings per start. He’s yet to make it a six full innings yet and only has two starts above 95 pitches. That’s not really ideal for a pitcher at this price.
The matchup doesn’t do him a lot of favors either. The pitch data looks rough for his two most used pitches and the Mets just don’t strike out. They are under a 21% rate for the season and almost at a 10% walk rate. Considering the circumstances, Snell has some ceiling but some serious limitations on paper.
Pitch Data – FB – 27th CB – 1st SL – 3rd
I know, the last time we used Lugo he got ethered off the planet for nearly a -8 on DK. He has some upside with this price as three of his previous starts went for over 16 DK. Tampa has the fifth-highest K rate to RHP and it’s all the way over 25%. For Lugo, his K rate is 31.5% and the walks are fairly low, under 6%. His xFIP is 2.52 which clashes with his 4.34 ERA and could mean he’s been a little unlucky. The fear is Lugo is a little worse to LHH. His HR/9 is over 2.50 to that side and the Rays are 13th in ISO. I wouldn’t lean on him for cash but he’s well worth a shot in GPP.
Honorable Mention – Brady Singer, Keegan Akin
This is not my favorite slate to chase strikeouts in the same game, but I’m staying with the Mets game. It’s best to just bet the double up here since both pitchers have their flaws, but the strikeouts should come even with some runs. After yesterday hit for 5x if you went that far, we can afford to be a bit careful here.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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