We’re closing in fast on the end of the MLB season but that doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made! We only have eight games on the slate for tonight and the pitching options aren’t the most inspiring. Still, we press on and MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.21 is here to narrow down that player pool for pitching!
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Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 3rd CH – 8th
I know, I know. The last time we played deGrom, he went for negative points and left the game early with an injury. There’s no reason the Mets would let him pitch unless he was in full health, so that doesn’t concern me here. He’s still the best pitcher in the game on most nights (maybe Shane Bieber has an argument) and he’s under $11,000.
The swinging strike rate is still over 21%, which is astronomical. He strikes out LHH a little less but it’s still over 32% and the wOBA is only .227. Tampa is quietly a top-four strikeout rate team at 25.4% this season. deGrom has all his normal upside and we shouldn’t worry about injury. Lock him in, especially with some questionable options below his salary.
Pitch Data – FB – 20th CT – 19th CB – 18th CH – 25th
There’s a lot of times that I just see a lefty on the mound against the Astros and keep scrolling. However, I noticed Sunday that while they still have a couple lefty mashers, the team overall is just average against southpaws. They are no better than 16th in average, OBP, OPS or wOBA. The only team category they’re top 10 in is ISO and that’s being carried by a handful of players.
Gonzales is quietly putting together a great season. His 23.7% K rate is the best of his career and the walk rate of 2.2% is also a career mark. The WHIP is under 1.00 for the first time in his career and he’s faced some good lineups against lefty pitching. He’s owned the Angels this year, gotten through the Dodgers and the Padres and A’s. I would normally go just GPP, but am really fine pairing him with deGrom in cash.
Honorable Mention – Adam Wainwright
Pitch Data – FB – 21st CH – 22nd SL – 11th
If you decide to just go expensive at SP and pair Castillo with deGrom in cash, I certainly won’t stop you. If we get enough value bats, I may do it myself. Castillo is firmly in play with drawing a Brewers matchup that has been a strikeout haven this year. The swinging strike rate has stayed stagnant this year at 15.6% but the K rate has gone up over 30% for the first time for Castillo. The Brewers are still striking out 26.8% of the time to RHP.
The first time Castillo tangled with this team he went for over 24 DK points and he’s running hot right now. The past three starts have totaled 22 IP, three ER, 6 walks and 24 strikeouts. He’s faced the Pirates twice and the Reds, but it’s not like the Brewers are a tough matchup on paper. They remain bottom five in every offensive category we value except ISO. Milwaukee has crawled up to 18th in that one.
Pitch Data – FB – 14th CB – 20th SL – 2nd
I have thoughts of Marquez in cash, but maybe it’s best to leave him in GPP. The SP2 slot for cash tonight is difficult if not spending up to Castillo so Marquez is in the running. He’s seen the Giants once this year and put up 30 DK, and that came in Coors Field. He doesn’t have to worry about that tonight since they are in San Francisco.
Marquez has seen the K rate come down to under 22% but his salary isn’t that big of an ask right now. I’m not thrilled with the walks coming up to 7.9% but the swinging strike rate is almost exactly in line with last year. The ERA is over 4.00 but the FIP and xFIP are both under 4.00. He’s even handling lefties better with just a .311 wOBA and two homers, which are both lower on the road. His road ERA is 2.64 so he should be in play tonight.
Honorable Mention – Lance McCullers, Brandon Woodruff, Johnny Cueto
I think the best chance we have to rack up the strikeouts tonight is the Castillo/Woodruff combo. We talked about Castillo’s upside and Woodruff brings a hefty 29.5% K rate to the table himself. The Reds are a top 10 K rate team to RHP and Woodruff has eight strikeouts across 10 innings against the Reds this year.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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