We kept the momentum rolling last night with four of our five pitchers performing very well! In Discord, we moved off Josh Lindblom after seeing some projected ownership and that proved to be the right call as he lagged behind everyone else. Tonight’s slate is a tough one to navigate. There’s a few pitchers of interest, but the salary seems pretty high. We might nee to look at pitching more as a product of the slate as opposed to just their salary. Either way, let’s jump in and figure out which pitcher’s are going to be worth it tonight in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2!
Pitch Data – FB – 7th SL – 13th CH – 1st CT – 14th CB – 4th
This is clearly not the best spot for the pitch data for Scherzer, but given his price compared to others I’m not going to worry too much. It’s still Scherzer. He’s still the victim of a massive BABIP of .372 but the swinging strike rate is almost 16%. The K rate has really not suffered this year since it’s still at 34.4% overall.
The key most nights for Scherzer is the opposing lineup composition. Lefties have been an issue for power for years, but now they’re just hitting him all over. The average is .301, the wOBA is .365 and the HR/9 is 1.47. Philly has four projected lefties, including Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius. The other two lefties of Jay Bruce and Roman Quinn wouldn’t strike fear into me (though the three that can produce power are really fun one-offs) and Max is still under $10,500. He’s plug and play in cash with four starts of double digit K’s.
Pitch Data – FB – 14th CB – 25th CH – 28th
McKenzie just fits too well with Scherzer in cash to ignore, let alone the matchup looks pretty nice as well. We’ve seen two starts from the young righty and they’ve been on the opposite end of the spectrum. One was 33 DK and one was 7, so there’s still some risk. McKenzie really didn’t pitch that poorly the last start and was only allowed 84 pitches. The Royals do have the 11th highest K rate to RHP this year so McKenzie should be able to take advantage of that.
In his two starts, the 34.2% K rate certainly stands out. Granted, one start came against the Tigers but that was also McKenzie’s debut. The 12.8% swinging strike rate is highly encouraging, as is the 33.3% hard hit rate The concern is the 52.4% fly ball rate, which always has the ability to get ugly. It’s too early to tell if this sticks, but LHH have had the best success so far with a .303 wOBA and both homers. KC has four lefties projected, but they are all under a .330 wOBA to RHP since last year.
Pitch Data – FB – 29th CT – 7th CB – 13th SL – 6th
Since pricing is a little tough, I feel strongly on the Scherzer and McKenzie pair in cash. However, there’s a handful of pivots that I’m interested in as well. Buehler stands out as a perfect pivot to Max since they are virtually the same price. Since Buehler only missed one start, he shouldn’t be extremely limited here. The last time we saw him he was routing the Rockies to the tune of 35 DK points.
It’s been a rough year for Buehler with a 4.32 ERA and a 4.71 FIP. The 1.80 HR/9 is a massively different mark for Buehler and it’s very out of character. He leans on that fastball over 60% of the time so the pitch data might favor him a bit more than the surface looks. What could really work for Buehler tonight is the K rate to the LHH. It sits at 32.6% with a 2.56 FIP. Arizona has seven projected lefties tonight, leaving Buehler with some serious ceiling.
Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 14th
Lamet is typically a cash game staple for me but he actually got priced up for once. I’m still interested in him on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.2. He hasn’t gone past five innings the past two games and that is a small concern, but the pitch data looks good for him. The fears are the Angels are second in walk rate at 12% and Lamet walks 9% of the hitters he faces and can be a little wild. Also, while he has a 32.9% K rate, the Angels are under 22% as a team.
The other really concerning part is the fly ball rate Lamet displays. He’s at 47.1% and as a team, the Angels are leading the league at a 41.7% fly ball rate themselves. This start could go really well for Lamet if he has his control, but could get really ugly as well. I have no interest in cash tonight.
Pitch Data – FB – 2nd CT – 3rd CB – 1st CH – 16th
This is not a good matchup on paper for about any pitcher in the majors, but Gallen has faced this gauntlet once. He walked away with 23 DK points and nobody will play him tonight. Gallen has a good combo of not allowing hard contact or fly balls with both rates under 35% on the season.
The Dodgers lineup is ridiculous up and down, but if you have a preference, you’d like the pitcher to be slightly better vs LHH. That’s the case for Gallen with a .261 wOBA and .195 average. The K rate drops but if he can whiff some of the righties lower in the order and survive the top, it’s not unthinkable to get another 23 DK from him tonight.
Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!
The Padres take on Julio Teheran tonight, and to say Teheran has been poor is a massive understatement. LHH alone have a .483 wOBA through 37 hitters and RHH are at .354. The Padres should be in line for a big night and if Eric Hosmer happens to not start, Mitch Moreland should. He could slide right in.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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