After a night off from an article, we’re ready to roll into a big slate on Friday. We have 12 games on tap and some promising spots to try and go after, so let’s get started in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.18!
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Pitch Data – FB – 7th SL – 28th CH – 16th CB – 27th
Plesac checks so many boxes that I would have to imagine he’s the chalk. He’s a righty against the Tigers, he owns a 25.5% K rate on his own and his WHIP is 0.78. Plesac is also only giving up a 30% hard hit rate while generating a swinging strike rate of 14.2%. We don’t need to get too involved here in all honestly. Much like Bieber last night, you basically just lock him in cash and move on to the rest. The salary of $8,500 is fairly laughable given the circumstances.
Pitch Data – FB – 9th CB – 16th
Playing Glasnow can be a bit of a roller coaster at times, but the simple fact is he strikes hitters out and the K is King in MLB DFS. The big righty has a 37.4% K rate and that is tied for the third-highest among starters this season. I still contend he’s been unlucky so far because the FIP is 3.51 and the xFIP is 2.86 but the ERA is 4.47. The HR/9 is elevated at 1.55 with just a 37.3% fly ball rate.
He’s faced the Orioles twice this season and had their number, whiffing 18 hitters over 11.2 IP. Baltimore isn’t typically a big strikeout matchup at 22.9% but Glasnow is not your typical pitcher. The walk rate is a bit higher than I love at 9.7% but the amount of strikeouts overwhelms the negative there. Count me in regardless of format for him tonight.
Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 30th SL – 9th CB – 8th
It might seem weird to put Greinke in the GPP category but he’s been a little rough lately. It could just be a small blip but with Greinke and the mileage on that arm, it’s best to be careful. He continues to get it done unlike just about every other pitcher in the game. Not many pitchers survive an 87.2 MPH average on the fastball. That’s 143rd among staring pitchers. He’s also not in the cash pile since he’s the highest salary on DK despite four of his last five games scoring under 18 DK.
Arizona also has the best K rate in MLB to the righty pitchers at just 20.3% so the matchup certainly isn’t great. It’s one of the reasons I won’t go there in cash, but the splits could be key for Greinke. He dominates LHH with a .218 wOBA and .189 average with 0 homers so far. The K rate skyrockets to 31% so if the D-Backs trot out a lefty-filled lineup, Greinke could quietly be one of the best options of the night and not many will pay up for him.
Pitch Data – FB – 20th CH – 26th
I’m still of the strong opinion that Paddack has to develop some type of reliable third pitch if he sticks as a big time starter. Since that’s not happening by tonight, he can be nothing more than a GPP option. He does draw the Mariners matchup that we’ve picked on a lot and is fighting for a role in the postseason. His lone start against the Mariners was a mixed bag. He whiffed seven but gave up six runs.
Another plus here is Paddack is pitching in San Diego, where the ERA is 4.11 compared to 5.79 on the road. Seattle has been a lot better in the K rate, down to 22.6%. They are still 16th or worse in OPS, ISO and wOBA so there’s still potential for Paddack tonight.
Honorable Mention – Max Fried, Zac Gallen
The only game that features two ace to ace-lite pitchers is the Arizona at Houston game, so we’re focusing on that one. I feel most comfortable with the lowest K total and just treating it as a double up, but bankroll management is always key.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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