It was another very solid day on the Starting Rotation, with three of four primary options going over 27 DK and two clearing 30. Jesus Luzardo was the main player that was just average, but he was so popular in cash it didn’t hurt you. We have a monster 13 game slate tonight so let’s not waste any more time before diving into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.15.
Pitch Data – CT – 24th FB – 24th SL – 29th CB – 24th
This spot couldn’t honestly line up much better for Darvish. First off, we saw him struggle mightily in the first inning last start. He responded and still finished with 22 DK and whiffed nine Reds hitters. He carries a 33.6% K rate into this one and the ERA, FIP and xFIP are all under 2.65. The Indians are struggling with RHP at a 24.2% K rate and being 24th or worse in ISO, OPS and wOBA.
If there’s any small concern, it’s the reduced K rate to LHH for Darvish. It’s “only” 28.9% but the wOBA is still only .239. On this big of a slate we surprisingly don’t have a lot of very safe cash options, so Darvish becomes the prime choice almost by default. Let’s be honest, he’s always a cash option and the pitch data is really spectacular for him as well.
Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 21st CB – 10th
As I said, cash is a little tough here. There’s an arm that I do really like cheap that maybe you could turn to on DK for the SP2 but the safer choice should be Flaherty. It feels like things are starting to turn for him. The ERA and xFIP are both under 3.60 and he’s giving up a lower HR/9 from 2019. The K rate is down to 25% but the Brewers and their second-highest K rate to RHP should help him out there.
He throws the curveball the least of his three main pitches so the pitch data looks even better. He’s up to 95 pitches in his last game so we should feel good about the workload. Milwaukee has been flat awful all season and Flaherty has probably been a little better than some traditional stats would say. The 13.4% swinging strike rate is near identical to last year and will show up sooner than later.
Honorable Mention – Carlos Carrasco
Pitch Data – FB – 17th CB – 5th CH – 11th
I’m honestly flirting with Garcia in cash to be able to fit more bats. He’s started three games and has scored over 23 DK in two, while scoring 9.7 in the other. His best start so far has come in his last one vs these Blue Jays, where he was throwing some high heat.
Deivi Garcia, 94mph Fastball…and K Hop. @freejoekelly17 pic.twitter.com/DkzayTQitp— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2020
Deivi Garcia, 94mph Fastball…and K Hop. @freejoekelly17 pic.twitter.com/DkzayTQitp
Through three starts, he has a 25.7% K rate and a 2.9% walk rate. Considering his walk rate has been over 11% at every stop of A+, AA and AAA ball, that is wonderful for Garcia. He has no fear and seems unflappable so far. Teams have not been able to figure him out with just a 28.6% hard hit rate. The 12.1% swinging strike rate is a great sign too and he really shouldn’t be under $7,000.
Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 10th CH – 28th
Perhaps the ultimate GPP option, Boyd has some serious upside at $8,000 with some horrendous downside. In his last seven starts, three have been under 1 DK and two have been over 24. That’s what we call the roller coaster. The Royals do only whiff 21.4% but Boyd is at 24.4% himself. The 2.68 HR/9 is really bizarre. Boyd has a SIERA of just 4.27 and an xFIP of 4.63. Both are significantly different than the 7.63 ERA. His 13.1% swinging strike rate is way out of whack for a bad pitcher as well. Boyd could be anything on this slate but I’m willing to look at him.
Honorable Mention – Ljay Newsome, Dane Dunning, Taijuan Walker
It’s been open season on D-Backs starter Madison Bumgarner. He’s getting crushed to an ERA over 7.00 with a 13.7% K rate, 52.2% fly ball rate and a 45.6% hard hit rate. It gets worse to RHH with a .444 wOBA, 1.109 OPS, 4.74 HR/9 and a 9.7% K rate. That is….rough. The Angels should be able to capitalize on it tonight. Anthony Rendon leads with a .398 wOBA and .283 ISO. Mike Trout is odd with just a .167 ISO and .318 wOBA but Bumgarner is nothing to fear. Likewise, Justin Upton whiffs over 34% of the time but when he makes contact, he has a .204 ISO.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” Sure, we want to help you win that big DFS tournament. But we want you to have a greater enjoyment of Daily Fantasy Sports while you are doing it. Along the way, you also may learn some life lessons and gain some perspectives you may have never considered before.