We’re back in action on a fairly small Monday night slate! This slate is not for players that don’t like to spend up on pitching because the bottom salary players are tough to get behind. I’m not sure that there’s a pitcher under $8,000 that I’m too keen on. I do know the very first pitcher I’m locking in for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14 so let’s get right to it!
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Pitch Data – FB – 29th CT – 12th CB – 29th SL – 23rd
I’m not even really looking at any other option for my SP1 in cash and likely GPP. There’s some type of issues with just about every other pitcher on this slate but Bauer has no real concerns on paper. The K rate is 36% and the swinging strike rate is 12.7%. Combine that with a 29.1% hard hit rate and it’s hard to see where the Pirates hurt him. They are a top 10 offense in K rate to RHP and near the bottom of every offensive category. This one is too simple by every metric we value.
Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 27th CH – 26th
This would not normally be a cash play but the slate sort of dictates Luzardo being the cheapest we can go. Seattle is 24th or worse in OBP, OPS, slugging, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ on the season to LHP. That also comes with a K rate that is over 25% as a team, so there’s room for potential upside.
Luzardo has a 23.9% K rate himself and just a 27.4% fly ball rate. He also doesn’t get hit very hard with just a 33.1% hard hit rate. The .306 BABIP doesn’t seem like something that will stick around forever either so this lines up well. The pitch data really couldn’t be much better for him either so Bauer and Luzardo is the cheapest combo we could go in cash.
Pitch Data – FB – 2nd SL – 9th
We all know this isn’t the best spot on paper with the Dodgers being one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Lamet has faced them once and only accrued 11.2 DK points. He actually pitched pretty well in real life, with just one earned through 5.2 IP. He just didn’t get the strikeouts with two. The Dodgers lead the league in K rate at 20.2% but Lamet is that talented that he can get it done here with his 32.9% K rate on the season.
Pitch Data – FB – 6th CH – 1st CT – 21st
This is another spot that doesn’t exactly line up with what we want. Lopez still is worth a look for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.14. We’re hoping that Lopez bounces back after getting hammered by the Braves last time out. In fact, that could help us this time around since game log watchers won’t go near him. Even after the disaster last time, Lopez still has a 4.50 ERA to go with his 3.15 FIP and 3.49 xFIP. The HR/9 is still 0.68 and the K rate is right at 23%. He continues to show serious home/road splits with a 2.79 ERA at home through 19.1 IP. This is a good spot to try and get him low-owned.
Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw, Kwang Hyun Kim
The Orioles are putting Jorge Lopez on the mound and that’s likely not to end well for him. The Braves are getting healthy and Lopez features a 6.38 ERA and a K rate under 18%. Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman and Adam Duvall all have an ISO over .355 and a wOBA over .380.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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