It appears we’ll back in action tonight with what is listed as a 12 game slate. Given the past couple days, I highly encourage you to be around Discord for any potential updates as they roll in. We’ll do our best to keep everyone posted on what’s happening. The 12 games offers us a pretty full gamut of pitchers today so let’s get after it in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28!
Pitch Data – FB – 23rd SL – 18th CH – 12th
Mad Max also throws a curve and a cutter but they are under 10% each. Scherzer isn’t quite his normal self here so far this season. So far though six starts (really five since one was only an inning), he’s seen some regression. The ERA is up and it’s mirrored by a rise in FIP and xFIP. His HR/9 is currently at a high water mark of his career at 1.44. The walk rate is also at the highest it’s ever been at 9.5% while the K rate is the lowest since 2016. Granted, it’s still at 32.1% but it’s noticeable.
The common thought would be “it’s a small sample” and it’s not like Scherzer hasn’t been really good. He just hasn’t quite been the Scherzer we’ve seen for year. I’m always a little more cautious with older guys like Max with a ton of mileage, including a World Series run last year. Boston has the 11th highest K rate to RHP so Scherzer is the cash pitcher of the night. I believe we have other options and I will likely be underweight outside of that format.
Pitch Data – FB – 19th CT – 26th CB – 30th CH – 13th
If you’re a person who locks in the two best pitchers on the slate on DraftKings and then builds the bats, Gallen is your man to go with Scherzer. I was very impressed with his last start, even though it was under 20 DK. He loaded up the bases in the first, throwing 12 of his first 15 pitches for strikes. That was about all he gave up the rest of the way, pitching six innings of one run ball.
Gallen is pretty even in his splits, with neither side having a wOBA over .277 on the year. Even against the Giants who have a lefty heavy lineup, the 26% K rate to LHH still projects pretty well for Gallen. He’s flirting with a 13% swinging strike rate so the 29.4% overall seems here to stay. It’s wise to eat Scherzer chalk but Gallen could rival his score on this slate.
Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 17th CT – 23rd CB – 29th SF – 25th
I don’t have any real qualms with Zach Wheeler or even a Kyle Hendricks for safety, but I’m not a huge fan of the price. Generally, I want to feature the cheapest option for cash and Burnes is that choice tonight. He does not have a game under double digit DK points in four starts and has been over 15 in three of them. The pitch data is elite against the Pirates, along with about every other major category we value.
I wil point out that Burnes is not the prototypical cash pitcher. The 14.7% walk rate is scary, but mitigated by the Pirates having the lowest walk rate in the majors. We do love the 33% K rate for Burnes and the 14.5% swinging strike rate. The stuff isn’t a problem for him at all. He strikes out both sides of the plate evenly and Pittsburgh has moved into the top 10 in K rate. This is a cheap source of strikeouts that has some of his negatives muted by the matchup.
Pitch Data – FB – 18th CB – 26th
I can only hope McKenzie gives us the same results for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.28 that he gave us last time with 33 DK. We can’t be overly sure on the pitch mix for McKenzie based off one start, but his two main pitches are a good matchup here. He was evil in his first career start, racking up 10 strikeouts in six innings and only giving up a solo homer. The Cards aren’t a giant K rate team to RHP but 22.5% is plenty good for the price range. The bottom line is he’s been a touted prospect in the past and he showed poise, talent and ceiling in his first start. I’m more than happy to play him again.
Pitch Data – FB – 20th SL – 5th CH – 5th
Another young buck who can throw fire, Sanchez does draw a tough matchup on the pitch data side of things. Despite having a big fastball, he’s never been a giant strikeout pitcher and Tampa is under 24% as a team in K rate. He handled LHH far better than RHH in his first start, and that would be key against the Rays if it holds up. hey are projected for six lefties tonight so that could favor Sanchez. He’s just like McKenzie. There’s not much data and he’s a grab bag of outcomes, but he’s under $6,000 and is very talented. Just understand what you’re getting into when playing him.
Pitch Data – FB – 16th CT – 19th CH – 23rd
The lefty for the Rays hasn’t exactly found his footing yet, but he couldn’t ask for a better spot than tonight to get going. He threw 97 pitches last start so that’s not a concern and the Marlins scuffle vs LHP. They sit third in K rate at 27.7%. Additionally, they don’t rank higher than 23rd in average, OPS, OBP, slugging, wOBA or wRC+.
Yarbrough’s price really is favorable tonight for someone that can go dip into a ball game and has a great matchup. The K rate should come up form 15.9% based on his history, and his swinging strike rate of 13.3% is easily the highest of his career. It’s just a matter of time before he puts together a 20 DK game and it could well be tonight.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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