Welcome into the first edition of the Starting Rotation article! The goal here is to break down starting pitchers for every MLB slate, dividing them into Cash Game and GPP options! If you read Three StriKes, you kind of know what I look for here. The advanced metrics, pitch data and salary are all going to be used here and everyday. Let’s dig into MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19 and see which pitchers we’re going to chase tonight!
*Note* The number after the pitch type is opponent’s rank vs said pitch. So if there’s a 20 after FB, the team the pitcher is facing is 20th vs the fastball.
Gerrit Cole/Jacob deGrom/Pablo Lopez – Since I’m covering Picks and Pivots, I already dug into the big two aces and Lopez. There’s no reason to subject you to the same info here.
Pitch Data – FB – 29th CH – 26th SL- 23rd CB -16th
Urias has not featured much strikeout upside yet and the price is inflated to my eyes. However, I also feel pretty good about he’s not going to get lit up in this spot. Urias leans heavily and his fastball/changeup mix at about 80% this season. The Mariners struggle badly against those pitches so we have one big check to Urias.
Unsurprisingly, Seattle is a top-eight offense in K rate to LHP. This could help Urias improve on his current 15.3% K rate. The swinging strike rate of 11.8% would certainly lean you towards the stuff is good enough to get K’s eventually. What we don’t like is the 50% hard hit rate and the 40.9% fly ball rate. Seattle again helps cover that issue as they are 20th in fly ball rate and 15th in hard hit rate. The Mariners are also dead last in average, wOBA and OPS so Urias can give you six strong. The ceiling just might not be there with his salary.
Pitch Data – FB – 26th CH – 15th CB – 19th
The ERA for Paddack wouldn’t make him look very safe, sitting at 4.91. However, the 4.07 xFIP looks much better and there’s only been one rough start. The biggest issue for Paddack is his fastball. That pitch is getting mashed so far. The fastball has given up a .333 average, .521 ISO and six bombs surrendered already. With the Rangers a bottom-five team vs that pitch, it seems like a good spot for it to get right.
The other big factor going fo Paddack is he continues to see pretty extreme splits at home and on the road. This trend has been there his whole career so far, with a 3.06 ERA at home this year. The K rate goes up, the HR/9 goes down… he just loves home cooking. Texas is bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO and OBP vs RHP. Paddack under $8,000 should be able to hit value in cash games. He and Lopez are as low as I’m going.
*Note* Casey Mize for the Tigers is set to make his debut. He’s a highly touted impact prospect, but remember – debuts are a total grab bag. He’s one of the most volatile pitchers on the slate and not in the easiest matchup to start. I would only have exposure with 20 or more lineups.
Pitch Data – FB- 15th SL – 9th CB – 17th
You always want to find some different pitching and we have some good options for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.19. Lynn continues to be a strikeout pitcher all of the sudden and improved to 29.8% this season. Lynn has only given up 27.4% hard contact and has an 11.9% swinging strike rate. Both sides of the plate are under a .200 wOBA against him so far as well but The Padres are a dangerous offense. They do have top 10 marks in wOBA and ISO but Lynn is a machine. He’s been over 100 pitches every start, which is a huge advantage in this day and age. Lynn should be overlooked with bigger names on the slate and with a tougher spot.
Pitch Data – FB – 5th CB – 1st
I’m almost always driving the Glasnow Bandwagon and today is really no different. To say it’s been a rough start is an understatement. Glasnow has a 7.04 ERA, a 13.7% walk rate and a 1.76 HR/9. He’s still averaging 12 DK points through all of that because he’s striking out over 37% of the hitters he’s facing.
Much like Paddack, his fastball is the issue right now. He’s seen it give up a .277 ISO and a .319 average. That will not continue, nor will his .424 BABIP and his 65.8% strand rate. The xFIP of 3.24 tells the story much more for Glasnow and he’s a major positive regression candidate. With DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge all out of the Yankee lineup, this could be the start Glasnow puts it together.
Pitch Data – FB – 17th SL – 6th CB – 20th CH – 12th
It’s time to get a little nuts. Castellani has been pretty useful in his 8.2 IP in the majors this year. He’s got two starts of 13+ DK and got his pitch count up to 88 this past start. With the small sample size caveat, his K rate is 31.3% and the FIP and xFIP are both under 3.75. His ERA is 1.04 but that’s obviously not here for long. If you took this matchup out of Coors, it’s not really that bad.
Houston doesn’t strike out a ton to RHP at just 21.2%, seventh-best in the league. The flip side to that is they’re no higher than 24th in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS or average. We typically just pass over pitchers in Coors but the price is so low, this is a worthwhile risky punt that could sink you or skyrocket you tonight.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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