We’re back for Week 3 and we went 2-2 last week. Losing the Jared Goff yards prop by under 10 yards was a heartbreaker and I truly thought Ronald Jones had one more week until Leonard Fournette took over. Alas, that was not to be. Now is a great time to check out Thrive Fantasy to get into prop betting! We’ll be going over the Core Plays for Thrive Week 3 to get you started into the world of NFL prop plays this Sunday!
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It possibly makes me look stupid, but I really believe this prop is far too low and it should smash without much of an issue.
Through two games, the Bengals lead the league in rushing yards allowed. They are also one of just three teams that have given up over 300 on the ground. Sanders only has one game under his belt, but the Eagles gave him 20 attempts coming back from a hamstring injury. He’s already accounted for 46.5% of the team’s rushing attempts and he’s in line for another big workload again.
We’re heading after another rushing prop that would have hit both weeks so far without even so much of a sweat.
So far, Montgomery has 29 carries which is inside the top 12 across the league. He’s rushed for 64 and 82 yards and now gets the Falcons defense. On paper, they look like a solid rushing defense with just 138 rushing yards given up to running backs. However, last weeks game script led the Dallas to pass the ball. The Bears will give Montgomery enough carries here to hit this one. They likely try to keep it on the ground to keep Matt Ryan and company off the field.
We’re three for three with rushing props so far but this is another exploitable number with a good offense.
The Houston Texans join the Bengals as one of the three teams to allow over 300 rushing yards. Even if you don’t agree, Conner is the man in this backfield. Both he and Benny Snell have 22 carries, but that’s because Conner was hurt in Week 1. Conner out-rushed Snell last week by a 16-3 margin. Provided Conner stays on the field (the largest concern), he should hit this one easily as the workhorse.
We want in on one of the more fantasy friendly games of the weekend and I’m looking at the NFL target leader for the last play.
Hopkins has one game where he nearly doubled this mark and one that went under. The latter game wasn’t super competitive but I believe this one is with the Lions passing game on the other side. Hopkins has 25 total targets and even though the aDOT is just 5.6, he still owns 28% of the team’s air yards. The Detroit secondary is very vulnerable and Hopkins is going to get fed the ball all day.
Let’s get after it this week my friends!
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