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10/23 NHL DFS and Props: The Daily Hot Shot

Hey everyone, we’re back with another edition of the Daily Hot Shot here at Win Daily! Tonight, we have two NHL games for the main slate. We’ll do a quick game-by-game breakdown followed by locks, punts, defensemen and goalies. Remember: for two-game slates it may be acceptable to play skaters against your goalie but its never advisable unless it’s in an attempt to create a variance.

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Detroit Red Wings vs Ottawa Senators – Ottawa is in serious trouble this season. If they’re not careful they could quickly become the league’s laughingstock with an 1-7-0 record thus far. Tonight’s game will be Ottawa’s most “winnable” matchup since the start of the season as both teams are looking to end lengthy losing streaks. Neither goalie is particularly good in this matchup and I can see this one getting ugly for both sides fast. I have skaters on both sides of this matchup in play.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning – Given that the Pens lost to the Panthers last night and now have to take a bus up to Tampa Bay, this definitely isn’t their ideal situation. Tonight will be the second half of a back-to-back and the Pens will start backup goalie Tristan Jarry, who is 1-1 to start the season but overall hasn’t found much success at the NHL level.

Pittsburgh has also had its fair share of injury trouble to begin the season with four top-six forwards and one top-four defenseman on the disabled list. For Tampa Bay, tonight represents a pristine opportunity to set their season on the right track against a team that’s back peddling. The Bolts threw their lines in the blender, which has provided us with excellent value plays littered throughout the slate and increased the number of viable targets tonight.

Best Skate Forward

10/23 NHL DFS: Locks of the Night
1. Nikita Kucherov (FD $8,400 | DK $7,500) – Last season’s MVP, Kucherov has picked up right where he left off with eight points in eight games to start the season. Now that he is off that pricey top line, he is much more stackable with affordable pieces that complement him on even strength. Against Jarry, Kuch can do some damage.
2. Anthony Mantha (FD $6,400 | DK $6,800) – Despite not maintaining his electric start to the season, Mantha has still regularly produced offensively for the Red Wings and has been averaging just under 20 minutes of ice time per night.

Tonight, the Red Wings are facing off against Craig Anderson, who has proven yet again to be one of the worst starters in the league, not that backup Anders Nilsson is doing too much better. Expect Mantha to get on the board tonight.
3. Brady Tkachuk (FD $5,200 | DK $6,300) – Tkachuk is Ottawa’s clear cut best forward and despite the fact that I don’t think Ottawa will take this one, Brady will at least give them a fighting chance. Brady is averaging around 19 minutes per game and appears on the top power-play unit. Although his team has been atrocious defensively, his opponents haven’t done much better, with Detroit allowing more goals per game than Ottawa through nine games.

If this becomes a true barn-burner, Tkachuk will have to get involved in the scoring.
Honorable Mention: Steven Stamkos

Punting on a Wednesday Night

10/23 NHL DFS: Punts of the Night
1. Anthony Cirelli (FD $4,500 | DK $5,000) – As mentioned earlier, Tampa Bay’s lines hit the blender, which placed Cirelli alongside the aforementioned Nikita Kucherov. Cirelli has been able to find the scoresheet with four assists in eight games while averaging around 18 minutes of ice time per game. Alongside Kuch, I can see this number go up. Again, Tampa Bay will be facing a tired squad with a backup tendy at their own barn.
2. Vladislav Namestikov (FD $5,200 | DK $5,000) – Since being acquired from the Rangers, Namestikov has been one of Ottawas top performers, despite not playing on Ottawa’s top line. Against Jonathan Bernier, Namestikov should be able to light the lamp but I remain cautious without stronger line support.
3. Mathieu Joseph (FD $3,600 | DK $4,800) – Joseph has tallied three points this season despite only averaging around 12 minutes per game. That ought to change as the new lines pair him alongside Steven Stamkos. The young winger still poses a significant risk but is very affordable and easily stackable with the former first overall pick.
HM: Connor Brown

The Defense Never Rests

10/23 NHL DFS: Defensemen of the Night
1. Filip Hronek (FD $3,900 | DK $4,600) – Hronek has been playing crazy minutes for the Wings this season and has put points to show for it with a goal and three assists through nine games. Hronek is extremely affordable and pairs well alongside Detroit’s pricey top line. Of course, the Craig Anderson effect may result in Hronek ending up on the score sheet.
2. Thomas Chabot (FD $5,300 | DK $6,200) – Probably Ottawa’s only capable defenseman, Chabot anchors the team’s top line and the top power-play unit, posting on average, almost 27 minutes of ice time each night. To his credit, Chabot is leading Ottawa’s defenseman in points with six in eight games.

The real draw to Chabot, however, is his peripheral stats. Chabot has been averaging around two blocked shots and three shots per game, adding to his DFS total at the end of the night
3. Kevin Shattenkirk (FD $5,700 | DK $5,100) – A bit of a stealth pick here, Shattenkirk is experiencing a bit of a renaissance this season with the Lightning. Through eight games, Shattenkirk has put up four goals and three assists while averaging around 21 minutes of ice time per game. Shattenkirk will find himself with Tampa’s second power play unit and will find ice time with the top three stars as well.
HM: Kris Letang

Yes, Virginia, Jonathan Bernier is the Answer

10/23 NHL DFS: Goalies of the Night
1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (FD $8,500 | DK $8,000) – Despite a weak performance in his last start, it seems to be nothing more than a blip on the reigning Vezina winner’s radar. Vas will be up against a tired and broken Pens team and should face his fair share of shots, but will be able to secure a win tonight.
2. Jonathan Bernier (FD $7,200 | DK $7,500) – I honestly can’t believe I am recommending Bernier, but that is what a two-game slate against Ottawa has brought us to. Bernier has been mediocre this season but has still shown flashes of his true self. The only thing going for him tonight is his opponent.

Besides the fact that the Sens are on a four-game losing streak, Ottawa has one of the worst goals per game averages, only just slightly better than the Stars, who are last in the category. To their credit, Ottawa has averaged a fair amount of shots per game but has trouble finding the back of the net. In this case, that benefits Bernier, who happens to be a super GPP play, even to the point where a punt or two against him may work.

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For this prop, I cannot see Ottawa cruising past 30 shots. Even so, I do not see Bernier stopping all the shots he faces tonight. Choose the under for Bernier’s save totals.
As mentioned earlier, Chabot is the King of peripheral stats as far as tonight’s slate goes. To even give him the bonus 0.5 is interesting. I recommend choosing Chabot to get more Shots + Blocked Shots than Larkin.