Welcome to a Money-Making Monday here at Win Daily Sports. The MLB bets have been rolling in hot, as Tony and I hit three of four last night on the Win Daily Sirius Radio Show (all bets were posted in Discord/Website). The DFS market has also been very solid as our tools to identify pitching have been spot on.
Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.
GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS
WASHINGTON NATIONALS -120 vs NEW YORK METS
Nationals SP Mackenzie Gore is coming off a strong month of May where he went 2-1 in five starts and posted a 2.60 ERA. And more impressively, he struck out 34 batters in 27.2 innings of work. And looking at his overall body of work, he’s allowed 3 ER’s or less in 10 of his 11 starts this year. The Mets haven’t necessarily fared well against LHP’s, as they are 18th in batting average and wOBA against southpaws. More importantly, the Mets are just 4-8 when a left-handed pitcher starts, including a 7-game losing streak.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -120 at TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Blue Jays have been playing better baseball of late, as they went 5-1 last week against the White Sox and Pirates. They take a giant leap up in competition tonight when they take on the Orioles and SP Grayson Rodriguez. The reason I’m siding with the orange birds in this one is Kevin Gausman’s struggles at home. His ERA in Toronto is 6.20 and he’s allowed 10 runs in his past two home starts. Additionally, he went 0-2 in three starts against Baltimore last season as several of the Orioles core have good numbers against him. His counterpart, Grayson Rodriguez, does also have reverse splits but has solid numbers against the Blue Jays lineup as their core is 11 for 46 off the Orioles RHP.
DOG OF THE DAY: COLORADO ROCKIES +105 vs CINCINNATI REDS
The Rockies have won three straight home series including wins against two of the league’s best teams in Philadelphia and Cleveland. Tonight, they welcome the Cincinnati Reds, who were out West early in May. And in those three series, which the Reds lost them all, they went a combined 3-7 overall. Another thing I like about the Rockies is they have a heavy right handed batting order that has been hitting LHP’s well. In the past 10 days, they are batting 0.289 against lefties including handing Ranger Suarez his first loss of the year. They see another southpaw in Andrew Abbott tonight, who has three losses in his last four road starts.
PLAYER PROPS
MATT WALDRON over 4.5 K’s (-180 BET365) and over 5.5 K’s (+125 BET365)
If you haven’t seen a video yet, go look up Waldron’s knuckleball. It’s refreshing to see that pitch come to life as days of Tim Wakefield and RA Dickey dance through my head. But in all seriousness, it’s the key to his pitching arsenal as he throws it 38% of the time and it has a 29.9% whiff rate. And he dialed it up even more in his last start, throwing it 55% of the time. It’s a big reason why he’s had four consecutive games above 6 K’s, which is where I’m betting him tonight in a ladder scenario. Add to that, the Angels have the 2nd highest K rate in the past 2 weeks.
JUSTIN VERLANDER over 6.5 K’s (+125 BET365)
The Astros SP is coming off two consecutive games with 9 K’s. And he rolls into a matchup tonight with St Louis who struck out 31 times over the weekend against the Phillies. And what caught my eye the most was their swing and miss propensity on off-speed offerings. That’s exactly what Verlander has been thriving on this year as he’s using the curveball at the highest rate in his career (23%). He’s also mixed in the change-up at a career high rate of 9% and he’s getting a 33% whiff rate on that pitch. The Cardinals rank 29th against the curveball, 14th against the change, and 22nd against the fastball. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to mix those offerings tonight and hopefully bring home a plus money prop.
TBD
PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – EZEQUIEL TOVAR over 0.5 HR’s (+400 DK)
We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.
Reds SP Andrew Abbott has one of the highest flyball rates on the card tonight, at 49.9%. And he’s pitching in Coors Field which has known to see balls fly over the fence at a high rate. The current wind direction may help too as it’s showing a 7 mph wind out to RCF. Tovar has 3 home runs in the past 10 days and has a 0.389 average to pair with that. So he’s seeing the ball well, as putting the ball in the air at a 58.2% clip of late (line drive plus fly ball rate).
DFS – 6:40 PM SLATE
We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 8.
Top Pitchers to Target:
ZACK WHEELER ($10,700 DK):
The card is stacked with top end pitchers tonight. But that won’t make me shy away from Wheeler who has been lights out this season, but particularly at home. In 7 starts in Philly, Wheeler is 4-2 with a 1.77 ERA. And opponents are batting just 0.165 against him at CBP. The Brewers bats have been hot of late, but I expect Wheeler to cool them down with his assortment of different pitches, including his newfound out pitch in the split finger fastball.
TARIK SKUBAL ($10,500 DK):
Texas has won 5 of their last 6 games to creep back into contention in the AL West. But that has primarily been because of their pitching has they’ve allowed 2 runs or less in five of those six contests. Their bats have a combine average of 0.231 over the past 7 days which is good for 20th in the MLB. Skubal is pretty much split proof, sporting a 2.13 home ERA and 1.86 road ERA. But one interesting note is that he’s 4-0 at night with a 0.77 ERA. And he’s seen Texas once this year and pitched 6.1 innings giving up just 2 runs and striking out 6.
OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: MACKENZIE GORE ($9000 DK)
Value Pitchers to Target:
MATT WALDRON ($7400 DK)
As mentioned above, Waldron has been pitching well of late and has been boosted by a high uptick in strikeouts. He has 31 K’s in his last four starts and has allowed just 5 ER’s. Add to that the Angels have cooled off significantly and are batting just 0.191 over the past 7 days, which is last in the MLB.
HONORABLE MENTION: TYLOR MEGILL ($7200 DK)
Top Stacks to Target:
ORIOLES:
The Orioles have been raking all year, but even more so of late. In the past week they are batting 0.292 and have 9 home runs. As mentioned prior, they also have good history off Kevin Gausman batting close to 0.290 as a team off the Jays SP. Four primary bats have averages over 0.333 in the last week and those are; Mountcastle, Stowers, Westburg, and Rutschman. Then you have Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander both with 3 home runs in that same stretch of games. If Urias or Hays starts those could be cheap options too.
PHILLIES:
The Brewers are going with a bullpen game today and starting an opener in Jared Koenig. While the Brewers pen has the 6th best ERA at 3.46, they also needed to work extra time this weekend throwing 13.2 innings against the White Sox in 3 games. The Phillies lead the league in runs scored at 313 and I’ll look for them to stay hot tonight against Milwaukee’s stressed BP. Of late, Schwarber, Castellanos and Rojas have been the hottest bats. But I’ll also try to mix in Harper and Stott where I can afford it.
Other Stacks to Consider: ROCKIES, GIANTS
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