On Deck: Pregame Notes and Updates for 6/15

153

Updated 6:32 pm EST

Want the perfect two hedges? A Mets back end stack, hedged with exposure to Wacha. Wacha has been pitching well but struggles against right-handed batters. Oddly enough, the Mets back end looks like they match up pretty well against the right-handed Wacha, who has reverse splits. If the back end (Frazier, Ramos, Rosario and Gomez) do not perform, Wacha will likely have a stellar outing. Have shares of both of these plays!

Updated 6:15 pm EST

To play Coors again or not? Good question. I am going to stay away for one main reason, fade the chalk. But I’m not happy about it! I like Colorado, I really do. But they’re going to be chalk city. Over my DFS career, I’ve just gotten into this habit of fading the chalkiest plays in at least 30 % of my lineups. Yes, it’s Coors, I get it. But a stadium/high altitude is an advantage but it’s not a definite by any means. Don’t forget the match up and get blinded by the environmental advantages. But if I were to invest in one of these teams, it would be the Colorado Rockies as Lauer tends to get beat up by them and he’s horrible on the road. On the other side, I actually don’t mind a little Marquez as he’s maintaining a 4.19 season ERA and beat San Diego earlier this season. (although he did allow 10 hits in this game) If you have the salary and don’t mind the chalk, these teams are obviously viable but for GPP purposes, I’m finding my pay up bats else where.

Updated 5:56 pm EST

I still love the price and potential for Bryce Harper DK ($4,200) & FD ($4,000). Yes, he’s slumping but check out the power they’re stacking up in the first four batters to hit behind him. They’re trying to get him pitches and against Sean Newcomb, this could be interesting. Newcomb has allowed a .324 BA to opposing left-handed batters this season, meaning reverse splits.
Bryce Harper owns a .333 BA in 13 at-bats against Sean Newcomb and I expect him to go low owned. Philadelphia is favored by -110 with a 9.5 under/over.

Updated 5:38 pm EST

Glenn Sparkman has one standout stat that tells me this will be a tough outing for him. Sparkman owns an 8.22 road era in four games, one game start. His splits indicate that left-handed batters hit him well which means lock and load Kepler, Polanco and Rosario. Minnesota is favored by -260 with a 9.5 under/over.

Updated 5:30 pm EST

It’s going to be hard to talk me out of rostering the Yankees against Reynaldo Lopez tonight. Lopez stinks. It’s just that easy. Gary Sanchez is in the four hole with the first three batters being LeMahieu, Voit and Hicks. In an extremely hitter friendly park, I see some killer home runs for these Yankee power bats. Gary Sanchez is a must play at the very least. Double dong potential! The Yankees are favored by -175 with a 9.5 under/over.

The Mets are showing a unique starting lineup against Micheal Wacha. McNeil is in the lead off spot with J.D. Davis sitting behind him in the two slot. Conforto and Alonso are consequently sitting in the three and four slots in the order. This is a valuable stack and against Wacha its very interesting. Wacha has reverse splits and over a three-year average those reverse splits stay pretty consistent. He’s allowed a .280 BA with 26 homers to opposing righties, while only allowing a .248 BA to opposing lefties with 15 homers. With a high under/over that hasn’t moved, the Mets gained my confidence more and more throughout the day. The Mets are favored at -145 with an 8.5 under/over.