RBC Heritage Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 days ago
RBC Heritage Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 days ago
185 It’s a pleasure to be filling in for our Director of NFL, my Sunday livestream co-host and good friend @StixPicks as he’s out for his bachelor party this weekend – congrats brother, another one bites the dust! If you haven’t done so already this season, make sure to give his NFL DFS Bible a read; it’s never too late to learn the foundations of the weekly challenge that is NFL DFS and take your winnings to the next level.Before reading this NFL GPP article, I highly suggest reading Adam’s Cash Game Checkdown and Game by Game Breakdown to get ahead of the curve. Players garnering high ownership (aka chalk) will be omitted unless I love them for GPP as well, but this does not mean they are not viable. The plays listed in this article will be the ones that we aim to target for ceiling games; ones that can win us a tournament. As usual, players identified as cash plays are certainly viable, but we’ll be focusing on players that will be both low-owned and that offer a higher ceiling than a high-owned player in the same salary range at their respective position to get ahead of the field. Should a player be mentioned that is projected to be high-owned, it’s simply someone I love too much to avoid in NFL GPPs this week.If you’re looking for a complete strategy article for NFL DFS, nothing is as complete as Stix’s NFL DFS Bible; it’s important to note the process we follow for GPPs nonetheless without getting into immense detail. Before getting into individual plays, it’s crucial to identify which games we want to target for full game stacks, which games we need a piece of – potentially in every lineup – and which games we can eliminate from the slate altogether. As such, my top stacks are as followed:1) Tennessee TitansDeath, taxes, and Tennessee stacks after Thanksgiving. You may have heard me say this for the past few weeks, but it’s something I truly live by in NFL DFS and certainly in my GPP lineups since last season. Coming in with the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.5, the Titans have a plethora of options in multiple price ranges to take our lineups to the top of the leaderboards.2) Tampa Bay BuccaneersComing in just under the Titans by half a point, the Bucs have an implied team total of 30.0 on this slate and have a glorious matchup versus the Vikings defense – or lack thereof. The reason for which I have them ranked above some of the best offenses in the NFL in positions 3-5 is because the Vikings are in a much better position to keep up in this game than other opponents, thus making this a more attractive game stack.3) Kansas City ChiefsThe Chiefs aerial attack is something I want a piece of in a ton of lineups; the combination of Miami’s defense and KC’s non-existent run game with Lev Bell and CEH dealing with questionable illnesses means Mahomes will be throwing a ton to chase the Steelers for that #1 seed in the AFC – and there ain’t no stopping Patty & Co.4) Green Bay PackersThe highest game total on the slate at 55.0 points, the Packers slot in comfortably at #4. I prefer to have the Rodgers/Adams combo or Aaron Jones solo than stack this game – unless D’Andre Swift is confirmed in, whereby I’ll get one of the aforementioned plays with Swift for a mini-stack in a few lineups.5) Seattle SeahawksOne of, if not the best passing attack versus the 32nd-ranked DVOA pass defense in the NFL? Sign me up for a high-priced, low-owned Wilson & Co. stack.NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 Quarterbacks1) Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD): The Jaguars want to lose for a better draft pick and the Titans need this win for the AFC playoff picture. Picking on a bottom-3 pass defense DVOA is no surprise, yet Tanny is not pulling the ownership he deserves.2) Russell Wilson ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD): Russ coming in at roughly 5% ownership is simply a joke versus this Jets defense. Yes, the Seahawks can get up early, but if they do, it’s because Russ cooked ’em. With RT Brandon Snell slated to come back, Wilson will have more time to throw the ball, and that’s dangerous for any defense in the NFL.3) Tom Brady ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD): The ultimate GPP play, #NoodleSzn. Never thought I’d get here, but Minnesota’s pass defense has been abysmal all season long and the Bucs will look to gain some momentum in their playoff push.4) Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK / $8,900 FD): It’s Patty Mahomes. No explanation is needed, but with Miami stopping their run game fairly easily here, look for Mahomes to sling it for 60 minutes.5) Aaron Rodgers ($7,500 DK / $9,100 FD): A-Aron in a dome @ Detroit is a recipe for a nuclear slate-breaking performance. This could be an Aaron Jones game, but Rodgers has torched Detroit in their stadium throughout his entire career and has been playing some of the best football he ever has.NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 Running Backs1) Derrick Henry ($8,700 DK / $9,600 FD): He rumbled his way to 159 yards and 2 touchdowns versus the Jaguars this time last season and King Henry could be in for revenge after flopping in this matchup earlier this season. December is otherwise known as Derrick Henry month and the power RB faces a Jaguars defense that won’t be able to stop him. Whether or not we stack with Tannehill and Davis or AJB is to be seen, so look for updates in Discord.2) Aaron Jones ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD): If you’re not playing the Rodgers/Adams pairing, Aaron Jones is your guy. The upside? He’s proven to crush Detroit — rumbling for 236 on the ground and 3 scores in Week 2. The downside? His snap count remains fairly constant at 66%, but the big play ability is simply undeniable in this matchup.3) Dalvin Cook ($9,400 DK / $10,200 FD): This is where we begin to spice things up. Facing a stout TB run defense, Dalvin is getting little-to-no ownership on this slate — and that’s a big mistake. No matter whether Mattison was out or not (he is indeed OUT), Dalvin is the guy here and a backup RB changes nothing. Not only is Vita Vea, the Buccaneers’ best run defender, done for the season, but replacement Steve McLendon is also trending to be out as well. I’ve said it since he returned to injury versus GB in Week 8, Minnesota NEEDS Cook; Mike Zimmer is coaching for his job and they’re fighting for a Wildcard playoff spot in the NFC. Quietly being a Top 5 offense in the NFL, Cook saw 38 touches last week with the best part being the fact that he ran 37 (!!!) routes, with his previous season-high being 24.4) James Robinson ($7,500 DK / $8,000 FD): The Titans defense has been a funnel in past weeks and JRob has been a ROTY candidate after going undrafted. Being on the field for roughly 90% of the team’s offensive snaps, the Jags use JRob in all facets of the game and will rely on him heavily in this contest yet again.5) Ronald Jones ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD): Another piece of our TB stack, this play has NOTHING to do with Coach Bruce Arians saying he wants to get him 20+ touches this week. We know the way he is with that, so I’m not hinging this play on a press conference. Rather, Jones is in a smash spot because the Vikings’ one capable run-defender, MLB Eric Kendricks, has been ruled out. After James Robinson just torched them for 23.5 DK points last week, Jones has 30+ upside at a mere 6k on both sites.Others to Consider:6) Ezekiel Elliott ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD): The o-line is still banged up but the Cowboys should roll in this one with Ryan Finley under center for the Bengals. Zeke looked good last week and at a mere $6,600 on DK, it’s a great 1-2 stack with Cowboys D in GPPs since the majority of the field will go to David Montgomery for $100 less.7) D’Andre Swift ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD): If he’s healthy, play him. GB’s run D is atrocious and is a spot I constantly target, week-in, week-out. The Lions won’t risk their future RB if he is anything less than 100%, so if he’s in, it’s a smash spot for the kid who has been picking up momentum in his past few starts and someone who can catch the ball as well.Low-owned value playsWayne Gallman ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD)Giovanni Bernard ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 Wide Receivers1) Davante Adams ($9,300 DK / $9,600 FD): the top wideout in the league needs no explanation for our NFL GPP lineups. Facing a Detroit defense that will be once again without top rookie Jeff Okudah and Desmond Trufant, Adams has ample opportunity to break the slate. He’s pricey, but worth it.2) DK Metcalf ($8,400 DK / $8,600 FD): He leads the league in all statistical categories when facing 1 on 1 coverage, and there is no stopping the athletic sophomore in this matchup. 3) Mike Evans ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD): He only has 14 receptions in his past three games, but he also has 29 targets and 4 touchdowns in that span. 4) Corey Davis ($5,700 DK / $6,800 FD) & AJ Brown ($7,300 DK / $8,000 FD): It only makes sense to stack our top GPP quaterback with his two top receivers; Corey Davis is having a breakout campaign and is simply too cheap on both sites.5) Allen Robinson ($6,800 DK / $7,000 FD): With the chalk being David Montgomery, look no further than ARob to get leverage over the field in a matchup versus the awful Vernon Hargreaves. Houston will give Chicago more trouble than anticipated and ARob will be counted on tremendously.6) Value PlaysMike Williams ($4,700 DK / $6,100 FD)Chad Hansen ($3,900 DK / $5,100 FD)Collin Johnson ($3,600 DK / $5,100 FD)NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 Tight Ends1) Travis Kelce ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD): Although Tyreek Hill is viable in any GPP, his price is too high for his floor in this matchup versus Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. Cue Travis Kelce, who would be a top 5 WR if his statistics translated to the position, for a mere $7,200 at TE.2) TJ Hockenson ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD): With Marvin Jones being preoccupied by Jaire Alexander, Hock should see a ton of work down the middle of the field as Detroit chases points all game long.3) Logan Thomas ($3,300 DK / $5,200 FD): JD McKissic chalk? Logan Thomas value is the pivot. With rookie sensation Antonio Gibson ruled out of this contest, McKissic has a safe floor and seemingly sees 8+ targets — which is great for PPR on DK — but if you need a punt TE, Thomas has to be the guy in this Football Team offense.4) Noah Fant ($4,100 DK / $5,500 FD): I’d love to play Jerry Jeudy here, but his health worries me. Cue the GPP interest in Noah Fant, who has been Drew Lock’s go-to target in all facets of the game. NFL GPP DFS: Week 14 DSTsI typically try to narrow this down to a handful of options but can offer one piece of advice regarding DSTs: do not get cute with it by playing a DST versus the Chiefs simply because they’re minimum price. Do not change a skill-position player, and certainly not a component of your NFL GPP stack just to fit in a DST. Slot in a team that you are comfortable with and remember, a DST selection is like a car; as you drive it off the lot, it begins to lose value; the moment the game begins, your DST is at risk of losing points. Play it smart, but don’t overthink it either.Seattle Seahawks ($3,000 DK / $5,000 FD)Dallas Cowboys ($2,400 DK / $3,500 FD)Carolina Panthers ($2,900 DK / $3,400 FD)Others to considerKC Chiefs ($3,500 DK / $4,200 FD)LA Chargers ($2,600 DK / $3,700 FD)Make sure to check out @StixPicks’s AETY projection model here and our cheat sheet for both DraftKings and FanDuel as well. You can find me on the livestream tomorrow morning at 11am EST and in Discord, as well as on Twitter @DFS_Ghost!
