NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/23

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Welcome back, NBA DFS fans, to another season of NBA DFS with Win Daily Sports and your daily edition of Ghost’s Gems. For both present and future reference, the Gems article will feature plays viable for both DraftKings and FanDuel, for both cash and tournament (GPP) play. If I can make one recommendation for NBA DFS amongst all factors to consider, it would be to keep up with the news heading to lock; if you cannot be in front of your computer one hour before lock, you are at a severe disadvantage compared to the field since players will get ruled out on a daily basis because of load management, possible COVID cases, and arising injuries from morning shootaround; this is where we get the majority of our value plays from since there are now bench players getting the minutes of a starting player at much cheaper salaries.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Now, let’s get to one of, if not the biggest NBA DFS slate of the year:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,400 FD / $10,000 DK)

The slate begins with the priciest player in the league, third-year sensation, and MVP favorite, Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks. A walking triple-double, Doncic averaged 28.8/9.4/8.8 across 61 games in the shortened 2019-2020 season and led his Mavericks to a playoff berth. Now, without his running partner in Kristaps Porzingis for the first month of the season, Luka will look to get the Mavs off and running to begin the new campaign. Sporting a 36.8% usage rate last season, good for second in the NBA, Doncic saw this rise to nearly 40% with KP off the floor – a small uptick, but an increase, nonetheless. With the Phoenix Suns team adding Chris Paul in the offseason, their defense will be improved, but this was still a unit that allowed over 48 fantasy points to opposing primary ball handlers last season; Doncic is a focal point for your cash builds.

Trae Young ($9,700 FD / $9,400 DK)

A tournament pivot off of Luka Doncic, enter the man whom he was traded for: Trae Young. With the additions that the Atlanta Hawks made in the offseason, expectations are high, but none are greater than those on the third-year point guard to take the next step in a similar fashion to how Doncic did so last season. Coming off an impressive 29.6/4.3/9.3 stat line in 60 games played last season, Trae fell just short of the elusive 30/10 club, finishing second in the NBA in assists behind only LeBron James. Sporting a 34.9% usage rate, Young is the Hawks offense and there’s no reason to believe he’s slowing down any time soon; the addition of Clint Capela gives him a legitimate pick and roll partner and up-pace, transition matchup versus sophomore Coby White sets up Young in a potential slate-breaking performance on the NBA’s first full slate.

Ben Simmons ($9,200 FD / $8,700 DK)

The former Rookie of the Year slots in as one our tournament plays for today’s NBA slate and is coming in extremely unowned. Facing the Wizards was a ton of fun for opposing fantasy players and their games were always ones we kept an eye on, but that got even stronger when they traded franchise cornerstone, John Wall, for Russell Westbrook. Known for his raw athleticism, triple-double, and simply stuffing the stat sheet, Westbrook is one of the worst defenders DVP and will be no match for the Aussie on the defensive side of the ball. Allowing over 49 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers, Washington wasn’t able to defend the position last season, and it may have gotten even worse with Westbrook sliding in here. Moreover, they played at the 7th-fastest pace last season and just added one of the fastest players in the league to their backcourt, making for a great game environment for Simmons.

Coby White ($6,200 FD / $6,500 DK)

We had mentioned Trae Young on the flipside of this matchup just above, and now we go right back to the same matchup – but at a much more affordable price tag on both sites. Not only are both Kris Dunn and Shaquille Harrison off the roster, but Tomas Satoransky is questionable due to COVID protocols and has only practiced once with no preseason action. The White/Lavine backcourt set fire to the NBA during the preseason, and they are both the present, and the future of the Bulls. White’s opposing matchup, Trae Young, lead the league in turnovers last season at 4.8 per game and will give White ample opportunity for steals and buckets in transition.

Dejounte Murray ($6,200 FD / $5,600 DK)

With Derrick White ruled out for this contest due to a toe injury, Dejounte Murray should get the majority of run at the point guard position for the Spurs. Playing at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA last season, not only is Murray facing a Memphis team that he can take advantage of in transition, but his individual matchup is also juicy versus Ja Morant, who was one of the worst defenders in the league DVP at the point guard position.

DK bonus play: Jeff Teague ($4,000)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($10,800 FD / $10,400 DK)

The Beard drew a ton of criticism in the offseason for demanding a trade, showing up to camp late and out of shape, and simply not seeming committed to Houston. Yet, here we are, as he suits up for his Rockets coming off a season averaging 34.3/6.6/7.5 in 68 appearances and an absurd 36.3% usage rate. You locked him every time Westbrook was out, well get used to it, because he’s in Washington now.

Devin Booker ($8,400 FD / $8,900 DK)

Look no further than the young stud facing Luka Doncic when lining up a game stack on tonight’s NBA slate. Devin Booker is set to hit the court with new running mate, Chris Paul, and will benefit greatly from a hybrid role of primary ball handler when CP3 is off the court, and as a spot-up shooter playing off-ball when he is on the court. Dallas fared well against 2-guards last season, allowing an average of 41 FPPG, but Devin Booker is simply different on the offensive end and the Mavs defense takes a hit with KP out.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,100 FD / $8,000 DK)

One of the breakouts in the NBA bubble last season, Donovan Mitchell is fresh off a max contract extension and ready to take the next step. In a game versus the Trail Blazers that has a 227.5 over/under and a 1.5 spread, Vegas knows this one will be close and dominated by the star power in the matchup. Mitchell, who will be seeing a ton of CJ McCollum, has a glorious matchup versus a backcourt who allowed over 49 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers. Fast-paced, star power, high over/under, and a tight spread – giddy up.

Zach Lavine ($7,900 FD / $7,900 DK)

Known as a high-flying slasher, Zach Lavine has drastically improved his shooting in the offseason and is another key component of our Atlanta Hawks/Chicago Bulls game stack. You can play him solo or with Coby White, as the two are set to combine for over 50% of the usage on the offensive end; the Hawks were decimated by 2-guards last season, averaging the third-most FPPG against in the NBA and Lavine averaged 21.3/5.7/4/1.7/1 in 3 appearances versus the Hawks last season.

D’Angelo Russell ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

A pure tournament play, the 1-2 punch of DLo and KAT is set to take this Timberwolves team over the hump – or at least try to. Facing a miserable Pistons team, there should be very little defense in this one and the two will be able to run the pick n’ roll fairly easily all night long. His shooting ability gives him the upside we need in tournaments, and he’s essentially coming unowned with everyone around him in the same pricing tier.

Devonte’ Graham ($5,700 FD / $6,400 DK)

With rookie sensation LaMelo Ball now in the backcourt, Devonte’ Graham will have much more room to operate on the offensive end. Sure, we may not see a full 36 of the Ball/Graham duo just yet, but it won’t take long when the Hornets realize what they have in their future backcourt that can be surprisingly effective in a weakened Eastern Conference. Coming off a much-improved season, Graham sees a Cavs backcourt matchup versus Collin Sexton, who is purely offensive, likes to play fast, and is turnover prone. While he won’t be the guy to consistent drop 25, he’ll fill up the sheet nicely here and provide some much-needed value in the mid-range on both Fd and DK.

Small Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500 FD / $10,200 DK)

Coming off his second MVP award in the past two seasons, the Greek Freak is set to wreak havoc in the NBA once again. Having signed the largest contract in NBA history and now playing with an improved roster than saw a notable addition in Jrue Holiday, there is not much to say about Giannis – he averages a whopping 1.9 FPPM and is as safe as it gets to getting a floor in NBA DFS and offers a ceiling like no other for tournament play.

Brandon Ingram ($7,300 FD / $8,600 DK)

Last season’s Most Improved Player, BI is overpriced on DK but offers us a great option at a shallow SF position on FD. With the Raptors being a team that often matches the playing the style of their opponents, look for the Pelicans to really push the pace in this one, just as they did all of last season, and for BI to take advantage. He’ll be in tough versus the likes of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby on the wing, but with Zion drawing so much attention on the offensive end, the arching jumper of BI will be able to provide us with a nice ceiling game should his shot drop early and often.

Tobias Harris ($6,600 FD / $6,200 DK)

One of the games we want exposure to, Tobias Harris finds himself as the cheaper, low-owned pivot to the tandem of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. A model of consistency and offering a surprisingly high ceiling on any given night, Harris will be able to thrive in Doc Rivers’ new system of spacing and shooting. With the Wizards struggling versus wings all season long, they give us no reason to believe this will change any time soon, especially with the points Harris can score in transition given the turnover opportunities Westbrook presents on the other end of the ball.

Danilo Gallinari ($5,700 FD / $5,100 DK)

Coming in as the prized acquisition of a tremendous offseason for the Hawks, Gallo is simply too cheap for someone that will be seeing a ton of minutes on the wing. Sure, the frontcourt is a bit crowded now that Clint Capela is healthy and John Collins remains, but Gallo can slot in comfortably at the 3 should the Hawks choose to utilize him in such a fashion. The Bulls will be playing mostly small, so I assume Capela to be the one to take the hit and for Collins to get minutes at the 5, leaving Gallo in a glorious matchup versus Lauri Markkanen.

Larry Nance ($5,100 FD / $5,900 DK)

Filling in for the injured Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. is a nice value on FD and great mid-range option on DK today. With KLove off the court, Nance sees a drastic increase in usage, from 15.3% to 23.4% and is currently projecting to play just over 31 minutes. Averaging just over 1.07 FPPM, Nance will be able to take advantage of a miserable Charlotte frontcourt that was decimated by both power forwards and centers last season.

Power Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($8,000 FD / $7,600 DK)

After having a tremendous season just a few months ago, Siakam struggled mightily in the NBA bubble, most notably in the series versus the Celtics which saw the Raptors get eliminated from playoffs. A matchup versus the likes of Zion will be no fun on the defensive end, but on the offensive end, Siakam will be able to take advantage of both him and Ingram with his post/interior play and spin moves.

Domantas Sabonis ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)

The most underrated PF in the league in my opinion, Domantas Sabonis was quietly one of the most productive players from an NBA DFS perspective last season. He is always underpriced for his ceiling of 50+ points and gets a nice matchup versus Julius Randle and the Knicks who allow over 48 FPPG to opposing PF.

Zion Williamson ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)

The sophomore is set to make waves in his second season; he’s coming in lighter on his feet, in better game shape, and finally healthy. Sure, the wings of Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby will be a tall task, but Zion is pure athleticism and score in many different ways.

Christian Wood ($6,400 FD / $6,300 DK)

Christian Wood could not have landed in a better spot than the Houston Rockets this offseason. Sure, Boogie looked great in preseason and it was unbelievably fun to watch the former Kentucky duo of Cousins/Wall do their thing coming off serious injuries, but Wood will be the primary benefactor when Houston turns to small ball – he can get up and down the court with ease and fits the playing style of Harden and Wall perfectly.

Davis Bertans ($4,700 FD / $5,500 DK)

Bombs away for one of the best 3-point shooters in the league! With Rui Hachimura ruled out for the Wizards, look for Bertans to be getting the majority of the minutes at both the ‘4’ and on the wing.

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($9,700 FD / $9,600 DK)

The best passing big man in the NBA, The Joker has an amazing matchup against Hassan Whiteside and Richaun Holmes tonight. Looking to be in elite form in the preseason, Jokic was dropping near triple-doubles in only 25 minutes of action. He’s a threat beyond the arc, where both Whiteside and Holmes will not venture, and can dominate the post versus two inferior defenders.

Joel Embiid ($9,400 FD / $9,800 DK)

Want to talk about mismatches? I am a big fan of Thomas Bryant – seriously, I think he has a breakout campaign, but man is this going to be tough for him in the post. Bryant is not an outside defender neither and will struggle to get to Embiid when he steps behind the arc and will get beat off the dribble quite a bit to overcompensate. Averaging over 58 FPPG allowed to opposing centers, the Wizards are a defensive disaster as a whole, but the PG and C positions are primary points of attack, and it just so happens that we have Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid together.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400 FD / $9,700 DK)

Playing Detroit in the frontcourt used to be scary – the days of having Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond, and most recently, Christian Wood, are now gone. Enter KAT. A threat from 3, in the post, and one of the best passing big men in the game, KAT gets a Pistons squad that allowed over 55 FPPG to opposing centers and he is finally healthy.

Andre Drummond ($8,400 FD / $8,000 DK)

Much more confident in this play on Opening Night 2.0 considering Kevin Love has already been ruled out, Drum has a legitimate shot for a 20-20 game in his matchup versus Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo, who combined to allow over 56 FPPG at the center position last season.

Deandre Ayton ($7,600 FD / $7,300 DK)

With the majority of players flocking to the Doncic/Booker game stack, Ayton is in a great spot for a tournament pivot to get exposure to this game and offers just as high, if not an even higher ceiling than his young teammate in this game. In a matchup versus the likes of Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell, Ayton has the ability to dominate the post and will see a drastic improvement in offensive efficiency now that he can run the pick ‘n roll with CP3.

Remember to review the projection model and cheat sheet for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays, as well as updates in Discord throughout the day as the news trickles in. You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost