NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 04/21

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This NBA slate is a behemoth and I am absolutely here for it! No better day for a big NBA slate and we’re looking to attack this one with the same process we always do: find the elite game environments and narrow down the individual plays. It’s Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($10,800 FD / $10,900 DK)

Make it now eight triple-doubles for Russell Westbrook in his last nine games and we have ourselves the game to attack. Beginning the NBA slate with a banger in in Washington, Westbrook comes into this one with a 29.1% usage rate and a 21.8/13.6/12.9 scoring line in his last nine, shooting 45.8% from the field while taking over 18 FGA per game. Considering this game features the league’s fastest and third-fastest teams going at one another, it is by far the best game environment in total possessions and lack of defensive awareness, making a perfect combination for NBA DFS glory.

Steph Curry ($10,200 FD / $10,500 DK)

Sit back and appreciate greatness; that’s the approach I take when watching Steph Curry take an NBA court and do what he does best – shoot the basketball. Not only has Curry has on a tear in his last eleven games with a 38.1% usage rate and 40/6.1/4.5 scoring line with 78 3PM, but he finds himself in a matchup versus a Washington team that plays at the fastest pace in the league, ranking 28th versus primary ball handlers and 22nd in defensive rating. Need I say more?

Also Consider:

• Luka Doncic ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
• De’Aaron Fox ($9,900 FD / $10,000 DK)
• Kyrie Irving ($9,400 FD / $9,900 DK)
• Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
• Kyle Lowry ($7,000 FD / $7,700 DK)
• FD Special: Damian Lillard ($8,600)

Shooting Guards

Devin Booker ($8,600 FD / $8,600 DK)

I hate being that guy that looks at game logs from seasons ago, but just take a look at what Devin Booker does versus the 76ers:

Sure, they have only played once this season, but even then, Book dropped a cool 36/5/4 on 23 shots and 60.9% shooting; tune into the NBA stream tonight for why I ride this narrative out.

Bradley Beal ($8,500 FD / $9,400 DK)

Steph Curry overtook him as the leading scorer in the NBA, but Bradley Beal is back, baby. Now having five straight 30+ point performances under his belt, Beal is still underpriced on both sites, especially in this game environment; sporting a 34.6% usage rate across his last fives games, Beal has posted a 32.4/3/3.8 scoring line on 47.2% shooting while taking a ridiculous 25 FGA per night.

Also Consider:

• Paul George ($9,400 FD / $9,300 DK)
• CJ McCollum ($8,100 FD / $8,800 DK)
• Fred VanVleet ($7,500 FD / $8,200 DK)
• Joe Ingles ($6,300 FD / $6,400 DK)

Small Forwards

Michael Porter Jr. ($7,400 FD / $7,900 DK)

While both Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler are questionable, even if they play, I will have no exposure to either one of them. Not to say that they aren’t good plays on this NBA slate, but my priority spend ups are in that first Washington/Golden State game. Thus, enter MPJ, who has taken over the role of the #2 scorer for the Denver Nuggets in the absence of Jamal Murray. Now having 20 or more points in ten of his last eleven games, MPJ has a 22.5% usage rate and a 22.3/8.8/1.1 scoring line across 34.9 MPG in that stretch, shooting 56.5% from the field, 41.2% from deep, and gets a 29th ranked Portland defense tonight.

Anthony Edwards ($6,900 FD / $7,100 DK)

With Karl-Anthony Towns questionable on the second half of their back-to-back versus the Sacramento Kings, yesterday’s write-up to Anthony Edwards just reiterates my interest in the first overall pick for tonight’s NBA slate:

“The second-best game environment needs to be spoken about when playing tournaments on this NBA slate, and it starts with the Edwards/Towns combination on the Minnesota side. While the return of D’Angelo Russell complicates things a bit for Edwards, his 27.5% usage rate and 34.3 MPG in the month of April shows how much run he gets; averaging 22/4.5/3.5 on 43.3% shooting, this game will feature two of the leagues fastest teams and the 30th and 28th ranked defenses. Giddy up!”

Edwards went on to drop 28/4/3 with three steals and a block, shooting 21 times to lead the team to a 134-120 victory.

Also Consider:

• Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)
• OG Anunoby ($6,600 FD / $6,800 DK)
• Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,400 FD / $5,900 DK)

Power Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($8,700 FD / $8,700 DK)

With the Toronto Raptors finally having everyone off the injury report, it’s time to make the push for the play-round and the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. Holding the tiebreaker with Washington but not with Chicago only means that it’s a “win and you’re in” mentality for The North moving forward, and it starts with the trio of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam. Sporting a 25.5% usage rate this season, his game has been wildly inconsistent this NBA season, but the matchup versus a Brooklyn Nets team that is ranked 28th versus power forwards and 18th in points allowed in the paint per game bodes well for Siakam’s skillset.

Draymond Green ($7,400 FD / $7,100 DK)

With the Wizards lining up Daniel Gafford for more time at the ‘5’ than Robin Lopez and Alex Len, Draymond will see a ton of minutes against a smaller center than he is accustomed to. His 33.9% assist rate will be on display tonight as the Warriors take on a Wizards team that will be preoccupied with double-teaming the greatest shooter of all time, setting Dray up to both attack the paint and the glass on both ends of the court, while finding Steph for open shots.

Also Consider:

• Julius Randle ($10,000 FD / $10,200 DK)
• Darius Bazely ($6,000 FD / $6,200 DK)
• Xavier Tillman ($5,000 FD / $4,200 DK)

Centers

• Nikola Jokic ($11,300 FD / $11,000 DK)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500 FD / $10,400 DK)
• Joel Embiid ($10,400 FD / $10,600 DK)
• Goga Bitadze ($5,400 FD / $4,200 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost