NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/13

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Before diving into tonight’s NBA slate, I want to reiterate a key factor of being successful in the sport; you absolutely need to be around for lock, and continue evaluating your lineup until the very last game tips off so that you can gain advantages over the field by utilizing the late swap feature. This will be as important as ever, since the majority of the league seems to have a number of players injured and/or in healthy and safety protocols. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($11,400 DK / $10,300 FD)

With the number of value plays that will be available to us on this NBA slate, we need to see which high end studs fit the bill, and Curry is certainly one of them. While he has posted back-to-back lackluster performances, the time to buy is now on the MVP favorite; sitting only six 3PM behind Ray Allen for the most in league history, Curry can certainly achieve what can only be described as the inevitable versus a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd versus primary ball handlers.

Kyle Lowry ($8,000 DK / $6,900 FD)

With Jimmy Butler confirmed as out for tonight’s game versus the Cavaliers, we can go right back to a few of the Miami Heat members, beginning with Kyle Lowry. The former Toronto Raptor sees a notable increase in usage rate with his two teammates off the court, from 19.5% to 22.7%, while also seeing his FPPM increase from 0.99 to 1.09. Sporting a 23.4% usage rate in his last three games, Lowry has posted a 18.3/3/11.7 scoring line on 50% shooting, while also facing a Cavaliers defense that ranks 24th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers.

Honorable Mentions:

• Chris Paul ($8,300 DK / $8,400 FD)
• Jalen Brunson ($5,800 DK / $6,300 FD)

Shooting Guards

Fred VanVleet ($9,000 DK / $8,300 FD)

Sacramento games are always on my radar, and there are a few Raptors that are of interest to me on this NBA slate. Beginning with the motor to the offense, Fred VanVleet, the Raptors are poised to take control of this one early and often versus a Kings team that ranks 27th in defensive rating and 5th in pace. VanVleet has posted an 18/7/10 scoring line on a mere 30.5% shooting in his last two games, yet has hit over 45 DK on each occasion despite the poor efficiency. With the Kings ranking dead last versus primary ball handlers, FVV will be on my shortlist for GPP targets tonight.

Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8,400 DK / $7,600 FD)

Despite the return of Terry Rozier, the Hornets remain without the bulk of their rotation, and will thus be popular once again. Simply put, Oubre’s price has gotten out of control and I certainly will not be going there in tournaments on this NBA slate, but we’ll likely be forced to roster him in cash if the majority of the field does as well. Sporting a 24.8% usage rate across his last four contests, Oubre Jr. has posted 26.8 PPG on 51.3% shooting, while also putting up over 20 FGA per night.

Honorable Mentions

• Tyler Herro ($7,200 DK / $6,400 FD)
• Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

Small Forwards

Miles Bridges ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

Considering I likely won’t be rostering Oubre Jr, Bridges becomes much more enticing at a shallow small forward position on this NBA slate. With PJ Washington questionable, Bridges can certainly be in for another 40-minute night, and he’s demonstrated his reliability with the bulk of his teammates on the sidelines; Bridges has logged over 41 minutes per night in his last four, while posting a 22.8/5.5/5.8 scoring line on 57.6% shooting. The Hornets also get a Mavericks team on the second half of a back-to-back, so look for them to push the pace all night long, where they currently rank 3rd in the league.

Kyle Anderson ($5,300 DK / $5,700 FD)

With Steven Adams doubtful to suit up for the Grizzlies tonight, look for different rotations from Memphis featuring Jaren Jackson Jr, Xavier Tillman, and Kyle Anderson. Making his return from injury for only two games now, Anderson just recently saw his minutes increase from 15 to 30 in his second game back, where he dropped 16/7/4 on the Rockets and played a crucial role alongside the Grizzlies’ versatile guards, and now gets a Philadelphia team that ranks 28th in the NBA versus combo wings.

Honorable Mentions:

• Cody Martin ($6,500 DK / $5,200 FD)
• Dillon Brooks ($6,200 DK / $6,100 FD)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600 DK / $11,500 FD)

Sitting fourth in the NBA in usage rate, there is arguably no player more important to his team in the Eastern Conference than Giannis. Fresh off a 41/17/5 scoring line against the Rockets, Giannis posted a 20-point triple-double in a win against the Knicks yesterday while only playing 32 minutes, making him a premier target in a ton of minutes tonight. Facing a Boston team that has been struggling in the paint to compensate for lackluster perimeter defense, Giannis is set to lead the slate in scoring.

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD)

With Luka Doncic set to miss a few games for the Mavericks, we are likely looking at one of the highest rostered players on the upcoming NBA slates in Porzingis, making him a staple in our cash games, but by now, you all know how I feel about rostering him as chalk in tournaments. When Luka is sidelined, KP doesn’t see much uptick in usage rate, but his FPPM increases through a notable jump in shooting volume. Playing a Hornets team that sits dead last in the league in defensive rating while also being second in pace, KP will be relied upon to carry the load on offense on their second half of a back-to-back.

Honorable Mentions:

• Pascal Siakam ($8,500 DK / $7,800 FD)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,300 DK / $6,400 FD)

Centers

• Nikola Jokic ($12,000 DK / $11,400 FD)
• Joel Embiid ($11,000 DK / $10,500 FD)

Honorable Mentions:

• Clint Capela ($7,800 DK / $8,300 FD)
• Dewayne Dedmon ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)

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