Welcome to the weekend preview for this weekend’s races from Watkins Glen!
This weekend marks the 5th road course race of the season for both the Cup and Xfinity Series. Watkins Glen is a 2.454-mile road course that will test the drivers on Saturday and Sunday. The Glen is a road course that typically runs faster than most other road courses so teams will need to bring speed!
In this article, I will take some time to review the previous four road course races in 2022 in both series. I will look over the stats and find trends and which drivers have been successful and those who haven’t.
NASCAR DFS: Road Course Review – Xfinity Series
One driver has dominated the road courses in the Xfinity Series this season and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that it’s AJ Allmendinger. In four races this season, Allmendinger has won three times with Ty Gibbs winning at Road America in July.
While Gibbs does have a win on this track type in 2022, it’s Austin Hill that has been the second-best driver after Dinger this season on road courses. Hill has finished top 5 in three of four races and top 10 in all four and he has the second-best average finish behind Allmendinger (4.5). What it’s still all about is scoring fantasy points on DraftKings and that is another spot where Hill shines. Among drivers who have run all four races, Hill ranks third with 42.6 DKFP P/R. What driver ranks 2nd, well let’s find out.
Brandon Jones would be that driver. Jones doesn’t do this by finishing well even though he has an average finish of 12.3, but instead, he does it with place differential. Jones has yet to start better than 14th in any road course race and even has two starts in the 30’s. Another driver who has not qualified well, but has performed when it mattered is Ryan Seig. In four road course races, Sieg is second to Jones with a +14 average place differential.
NASCAR DFS: Road Course Review – Cup Series
Tyler Reddick is the new King of the Road Course in 2022. In four races on this track type, Reddick is the only driver to win more than one race. Reddick has finished top 5 in three out of four (Sonoma he finished 35th). When it comes to DFS, Reddick is a hard driver to roster. When he is on, Reddick is top-tier great, but when he isn’t he is terrible. Reddick has finished 20th or worse 11 times in 24 races this season and since Reddick typically qualifies well (14 top 10 starts this season) he is super risky on most days. If we play Reddick on Sunday, it will be in GPPs only.
Reddick may have the most wins on road courses and have three top 5’s in 2022, but there is one driver who may be a much better play on this track type. Austin Cindric has an average finish of 5.5 (best in the series) on road courses and averages 45.5 DKFP P/R (also best in the series). Cindric made his name on road courses in the Xfinity Series and he continued to show how good he is in the Cup Series in 2022. Cindric has two top 5’s in four races and is the ONLY driver to finish top 10 in all four. Michael McDowell is the only driver along with Cindric to finish top 15 in all four races as well.
One thing I always discuss for road courses is not chasing dominator points, and looking at the top drivers in average DKFP P/R proves that. Every driver in the top 5 in DKFP averages a top 10 finish in the previous four road course races (Cindric, Elliott, Chastain, Buescher, McDowell). By the way, Elliott is the only driver with a negative place differential in the top 5 of average DK points.
There are a few other drivers I am high on for this race, but you will just have to wait for the Pit Stop article for that race on Saturday night.