MVP Race

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Pitchers and catchers! My favorite three word sentence has finally arrived along with thoughts of springtime. Baseball season is coming closer, so this would be a great time to look at future bets for the AL MVP Race and NL MVP Race we can sweat out with each other all season.

AL MVP Race:

The AL MVP Race is Mike Trout vs. the world, with the departure of Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. Trout currently sits at +150 with Aaron Judge and Francisco Lindor each at +1000. Even with Mike Trout being the clear favorite for the foreseeable future, there isn’t enough of an upside to betting on him. I personally wouldn’t put my money on Judge or Lindor either. Judge may be coming for that 2017 AL MVP trophy, but he’s been hurt the last two years and hasn’t been able to find the magic he had in his rookie season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses some time again this year. I also think Lindor has a great shot at being traded at the deadline so Cleveland can make sure they aren’t in the situation the Red Sox were in this offseason. 

My play here is Gleyber Torres at +4000. He’s moving over to shortstop, a significant step up in defensive importance, which will be looked at with wide eyes by baseball writers. The Yankees also lost a significant amount of players to injury last year, but Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez have a chance to miss time again. If those guys all miss time and Torres stays healthy, a 40 home run season on a 110 win team might be enough to win MVP honors. Don’t forget that even though Trout has all these MVPs, he has missed some important time the last few seasons as well, allowing another player a chance to swipe his crown. Is there some strange stat about how Trout has missed many games in a season but still wins or is top 3 in voting for the MVP. 

An even longer shot for the AL MVP that is deserving of a look could be Gary Sanchez at +10000. For many of the same reasons as Torres winning, Sanchez could have the same opportunity. It’s usually difficult for a not-so-great defensive catcher/DH to win, but if everyone else on the Yankees is hurt and he carries them, there’s a chance.

NL MVP Race:

The NL MVP Race should be much more interesting, assuming everyone stays healthy. Currently the 2018 AL MVP, Mookie Betts, has the best odds to take home the NL MVP title at +550. He is followed by Cody Bellinger (+700), Christian Yelich (+700), and Juan Soto (+1000). With three MVP winners in Betts, Bellinger, and Yelich all in the same race this one would be enjoyable just to sit back and watch, but throwing around some money on it peaks my interest. 

I’m not looking to take either of the Dodgers because two guys that good on the same team will usually have a way of “splitting” votes. If one does get hurt and misses some time, the other is almost a lock for an uptick in votes, helping both of their cases. Yelich seems to have a great shot at the title each year but with missing time last year, he missed out on winning. I also think Soto is incredible, but I think +1000 isn’t enough. He’s riding high off that playoff run and I think the public will assume he does that for the entire season. Anthony Rendon won’t be in that lineup anymore, allowing more pitchers to go right around Soto and face a lesser threat on the Nationals.

The player I’m looking at for the NL MVP is Ronald Acuna Jr. at +1200. His odds will pay out a bit more than Soto, but I think he has a betting chance of winning the award. He came very close to the first 40/40 season since Alfonso Soriano in 2006, missing the feat by 3 stolen bases. He led the NL in runs and plate appearances last season and will have a great chance to do that again in 2020. The Braves have a great shot at repeating at the NL East champs, putting him on a winning team which (usually) helps. Let’s also not forget he’s patrolling center field and has a great glove, another reason to bump that WAR up. With that 40/40 season as close as it was last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a significant run at it this year, so make sure if you’re drafting in the top 2 of your fantasy baseball league to snag him. 

An outside shot for the NL MVP to look at is Pete Alonso at +4000. If the Mets win the NL East and Alonso does what he did last year, he could absolutely be considered.