Sad to announce the inevitable, that comes in the form of some good news and some bad. The bad news is that we just had our first losing week this season. The good news is that the first losing week didn’t happen until the end of June! For an initial program launch and my first crack at handicapping in the public sphere, I’d call that an overwhelming success. Now on to what really matters; Strategy & profitability.
Degenerate gamblers often increase their wagers during losing streaks in an attempt to ”get it all back” or because they’re ”due”. Profitable traders scale back wagers as soon the temperature starts to cool, and, if you’ve been following along you know this is exactly what I’ve done. Today is no different; I cannot get green on the week because it’s mathematically impossible. I will not pervert my strict risk management plan over a poor few results.
During this latest test phase of MLBMA v1.3 I’ve been playing very small wagers in combinations trying to get back on track. I dont stress single weeks, or even months. Why? My plan is catered to sustainability. Lately I’ve been hearing a lot about how I should list plays, or advise people. I got news for you; It’s not happening. My strategy has been molded for profitability over 15 years. My work behind the MLBMA algo is in excess of 1500 hours. I don’t follow anyone. You should never blindly follow anyone. If you see picks you don’t like, do not take them. In fact, I would love to here why. Please do not hesitate to get on Twitter and interact @MLBMovingAvg.
Sunday’s Six Pack
MIA F5 ML
ARI F5 ML
SD F5 ML
If you’ve been following my work on the MLBMA program, you know I’ve been trying to account for the disgraceful performance of bullpens league wide. I actually reinstated a formula I use for preseason fantasy rankings that incorporates ERA, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, & SIERA. If there is a 9 inning play going forward, it means our teams’ bullpen is in the top 10 by my MLBMA bullpen metric (with extra bump at home)
I am all about transparency as the centerpiece of my brand; It has a been a brutal week. Good pitchers getting rocked and unearned runs changing results littered our results.
I’m going to stay low leverage until we catch fire again, at which point we will scale back up. This is very valuable advice in trading as well; Buy into winners on the way up, not losers on the way down.
I’ll go with another Round Robin today, 15 sets of 4. This is a great way to avoid the all or none attitude of the average degenerate gambler. This enables us to turn a small profit on four hits, a larger profit on five and a huge percentage hit on six.
Promises of getting rich quick or never withstanding drawdowns are absolute fallacies.
Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories.
Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018