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DFS Strategy

MLBMA Premium Algo Results 7.3.19



Sports Betting

A Quick Intro to MLBMA & The Application of ORC+/PRA+

MLBMA incorporates technical analysis & trading techniques towards the current MLB space. I’ve created some new custom stats we’ll be using going forward that will encompass all the prerequisites and save us all a ridiculous amount of time. For example, a team with a high grade in Offensive Runs Created (ORC) means it has already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted rolling averages, trend & split tests. To list all of the pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we don’t have in a 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of the structure of my statistical arguments. Ultimately my goal is to provide you with the most comprehensive & unique snapshot of any given MLB slate in an instant. I want it to cater to those without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. This type of system requires only the most serious, thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul. This type of board analysis isn’t child’s play. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. Remember that profit alone is the name of the game, and efficiency is paramount. I bet, I play DFS and I play fantasy. This table readout serves all three simultaneously, providing you speak the language.


  • ORC% – Offensive Runs Created, as a percentage of the league average
  • ORC+ – Offensive Runs Created, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 
  • PRA% – Pitching Runs Allowed, as a percentage of the league average
  • PRA+ – Pitching Runs Allowed, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 

The conditional formatting for the board is set similarly to the incomparable Baseball Savant where red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. So regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for the color red and higher numbers on ORC+/PRA+.

You’ll also notice teams have different colors assigned to them. This is based on team wOBA over the last seven days, updated daily. Think of it as being on a heat scale. I always like to keep a team’s last 250 PA in mind before making my decisions. It’s a very helpful tool in avoiding a buzzsaw.

  • Red > .340
  • Orange .325 – .339
  • Yellow .291 – .325
  • Blue < .290

The highest probability hits are highlighted in green, with the specific play detailed within.

Just today, I added ITT, or Implied Team Totals. These are the actual predicted scores by the MLBMA algo. Of course, it can also be used for O/U plays or to identify DFS stacks as well.

MLBMA Algo Results 7.3.19

The ML Plays:

  • WAS F5ML + LAD ML = (-107) Sorry I didn’t get this out in time for the 6pm WAS start. LAD RL -1.5 is still on the table again, but I hate needing two runs and it cost me yesterday. I would fade outright unless you wanna pay the -260.
  • CIN F5RL (-110)
  • NYY ML (-140)
  • PIT RL (+135)

The O/u Plays:

  • BAL/TB F5 u4.5 (-105)
  • PHI/ATL O11.5 (-115)

I am constantly in a state of self audit at MLBMA. I backtest and log results to test for possible weaknesses in programming. I can’t quite pin down exactly what it is, but I am so disgusted chasing over and under scores that I just can’t fully get behind even my own picks right now. I’ll end up taking a small piece towards the pair at +272, but that’s it.

The good news is that we at MLBMA have constantly outperformed the market on ML plays. However, yesterday I have to take the blame on a manual error. The MIA F5ML pick was supposed to be for nine innings. I hate even the chance of being called a revisionist, but the argument is obvious. You absolutely must give the Nationals bullpen a chance to blow the game. I’m sorry, I apologize. I lost my own money on that one too. Good luck tonight.

Let’s get it

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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