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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy

MLBMA ORC+/PRA+ Custom Slate Breakdown 6.30.19

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Sports Betting

ORC+/PRA+ KEY

  • ORC% – Offensive Runs Created, as a percentage of the league average
  • ORC+ – Offensive Runs Created, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 
  • PRA% – Pitching Runs Allowed, as a percentage of the league average
  • PRA+ – Pitching Runs Allowed, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 

The conditional formatting for the board is set similarly to incomparable Baseball Savant where red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. So regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for the color red and higher numbers on ORC+/PRA+.

You’ll also notice teams have different colors assigned to them. This is based on team wOBA over the last seven days, updated daily. Think of it as being on a heat scale. I always like to keep a team’s last 250 PA in mind before making my decisions. It’s a very helpful tool in avoiding a buzzsaw.

  • Red > .340
  • Orange .325 – .339
  • Yellow .291 – .325
  • Blue < .290
Custom MLBMA Algo Results Found Exclusively At windailydfs.com

ORC+/PRA+ Based Betting Results:

  • SD ML (-110)
  • SD RL -1.5 (+170)
  • CHC/CIN O10.5 (-115)

ORC+/PRA+ Based DFS SP Ranks:

  • M. Scherzer
  • J. Lucchesi
  • B. Snell
  • J. Chavez
  • M. Bumgarner

ORC+/PRA+ Based DFS Stacks:

  • Padres
  • Pirates
  • Cubs
  • Reds
  • Marlins

ORC+/PRA+ Based F5 Hail Mary Dogcatcher Parlay:

  • MIA F5ML (+115)
  • PIT F5ML (+130)
  • TEX F5ML (+180)
  • SEA F5ML (+230)
  • OAK F5ML (+120)

Dogcatcher Disclaimer: I was asked to post these picks because for whatever strange reason, the MLBMA algo does pick these in bunches. I do not ever throw more than just a few bucks on these, but I’ve hit them several times this year already and frankly it’s been really profitable for me throwing $10 at them.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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