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Sports Betting

MLBMA 8/5 PREMIUM BETTING NOTES MIL at PIT

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Sports Betting

Today’s 8/5, and thanks from the MLBMA crew for reading and following along. The MLB Moving Averages program is a brand new algorithm for the 2019 MLB season that incorporates time-tested trading strategies, technical analysis and a wide range of statistics to deliver the most comprehensive breakdown of a single MLB game found anywhere.

OFFENSIVE BREAKDOWN 8/5

MIL Road vs RHP 2019, (Last 14 Days)

  • 129 PA
  • .208/.256/.300 Triple Slash
  • .556 OPS
  • .092 ISO
  • .242 wOBA
  • 45 wRC+
  • 32.6% K Rate
  • 6.2% BB Rate
  • 30.4% Hard Hit Rate

PIT Home vs RHP, 2019 (Last 30 Days)

  • 375 PA
  • .285/.360/.436 Triple Slash
  • .797 OPS
  • .152 ISO
  • .338 wOBA
  • 111 wRC+
  • 17.9% K Rate
  • 9.3% BB Rate

STARTING PITCHING BREAKDOWN 8/5

Jordan Lyles, 2019 (Last 10 Games Started)

  • 41.2 IP
  • 8.64 ERA / 6.15 FIP / xFIP 4.67
  • 1.87 WHIP
  • .326/.391/.657 Triple Slash Allowed
  • 1.048 OPSA
  • .427 wOBAA
  • 12 HR Allowed
  • 9.2% Barrel Rate
  • Poor Statcast Data (below)
Courtesy of Baseball savant

Dario Agrazal, Home 2019 (2 Games Started)

  • 12 IP
  • 2.25 ERA
  • 1.00 WHIP
  • .190/.292/.381 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .673 OPSA
  • .292 wOBAA
  • 4.1% Barrel Rate
  • Strong Statcast Data (Below)
Courtesy of Baseball savant

BULLPEN REPORT 8/5 (LAST 10 DAYS)

TeamWHIPERAFIPxFIPCRAP
Pirates1.393.624.024.323.99
Brewers1.413.744.564.784.36

MLBMA PLAY 8/5: PIT F5 ML (+120)

If you prefer to bet the full nine inning game, or if you don’t have the capability to bet F5, the FG is in play here as well.

General Betting Strategy

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have three favorite picks, I play a small Tier 1 ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

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