I don’t want to exaggerate any pitcher stats in a single start, but Keller is coming off of an extremely rough outing. He did settle down a bit after the major damage was already done, so my expectations are not that he gets blown up in the first inning. Unfortunately for him, that first outing was against a struggling Reds offense, and today he has a scorching Braves lineup entering their strongest split.
Mike Soroka, 2019 (10 Games Started)
1.32 ERA / 2.71 FIP / 3.60 xFIP
.163/.232/.211 Triple Slash Allowed
32.9% Hard Hit Rate
2.8% Barrel Rate
BULLPENS LAST 10 DAYS
THE PLAY: ATL ML (Read below)
The Braves have a three-phase advantage tonight. I know I’ve been generally betting F5s lately, but this game has the criteria that we want to see in order to go a full nine innings; Home field advantage, a definitive bullpen edge and a starter that we expect to go deep. Even in a scenario where Keller is good, it’s highly unlikely that he goes more than five innings. This will give the Braves an early chance at the Pittsburgh pen and its 8.73 ERA over the last 10 days.
***Strategic Note: I know sometimes steep odds like tonight’s game (-220) can be intimidating (when not parlayed), and understandably so. That being said, this game is a definite candidate for a -1.5 Run Line play; If you can accept trading the prospect of spending less capital for a greater percentage of failure, go for it. I almost always take a percentage of my risk allowance and put it towards the RL in case of a big win. However, I always make sure that in the event of a one-run win, I will still come out profitable on the play, even if it’s only a few percent. You must control your own style depending on bankroll, risk tolerance and expectations.
Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories.
Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018