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MLBMA Daily Notes 6.7.19 LAD at SF




LAD Away, 2019 (Last 14 Days)

  • 256 PA
  • .288/.365/.495 Triple Slash
  • .861 OPS
  • .207 ISO
  • .361 wOBA
  • 125 wRC+
  • 16.8% K Rate
  • 9.8% BB Rate
  • 40.5% Hard Hit Rate

SF vs LHP, 2019

  • 720 PA
  • .220/.285/.336 Triple Slash
  • .620 OPS
  • .116 ISO
  • .268 wOBA
  • 66 wRC+
  • 24.3% K Rate
  • 36.9% Hard Hit Rate


Clayton Kershaw, 2019 (8 Games Started)

  • 52.0 IP
  • 49 K : 9 BB
  • 23.8% K Rate
  • 3.29 ERA / 3.53 FIP / 3.34 xFIP
  • 1.10 WHIP
  • .245/.278/.434 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .712 OPSA
  • .299 wOBAA
  • 7.8% Barrel Rate
  • 1st TTO – 2.57 ERA
  • 2nd TTO – 3.00 ERA
  • 3rd TTO – 3.18 ERA

Drew Pomeranz, 2019 (10 Games Started)

  • 39.0 IP
  • 8.08 ERA / 6.46 FIP / 4.86 xFIP
  • 1.87 WHIP
  • 11.1% BB Rate
  • .317/.404/.585 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .989 OPSA
  • .414 wOBAA
  • 11 HR Allowed
  • 9.8% Barrel Rate
  • 1st TTO – 6.00 ERA
  • 2nd TTO – 12.86 ERA
  • Very poor Statcast data (below)
Courtesy of Baseball Savant




LAD has a pretty clear three-phase edge in this one, and it could easily get out of hand for the Giants. Ever the conservative player, I will continue to lay the chalk but there’s more than enough evidence to support either the F5 -0.5 or -1.5 ML.

Sometimes, a preferred strategy of mine is to take both RL bets straight, and then parlay the ML with another favorite on the board that night. Stay tuned for pick number two.

Let’s get it.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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