MLBMA Daily Notes 6.4.19 TB at DET

135

OFFENSE

TB Away, 2019 (Last 14 Days)

• 157 PA
• .285/.333/.521 Triple Slash
• .854 OPS
• .236 ISO
• .356 wOBA
• 125 wRC+

DET vs LHP, 2019 (Last 14 Days)

• 98 PA
• .231/.268/.319 Triple Slash
• .587 OPS
• .088 ISO
• .249 wOBA
• 59 wRC+
• 25.5% K Rate
• 5.1% BB Rate
• 33.8% Hard Hit Rate

STARTING PITCHING

Blake Snell, 2019 (Last 5 Games Started)

• 30.1 IP
• 42 K : 8 BB
• 36.2% K Rate
• 6.9% BB Rate
• 1.78 ERA / 2.12 FIP / 2.40 xFIP
• 0.96 WHIP
• .196/.259/.280 Triple Slash Allowed
• .539 OPSA
• .240 wOBAA
• 35.4% Hard Hit Rate
• 5.1% Barrel Rate
• Statcast Leader (below)

Ryan Carpenter, 2019 (4 Games Started)

• 19.0 IP
• 7.58 ERA / 6.93 FIP / 5.44 xFIP
• 1.47 WHIP
• .278/.341/.582 Triple Slash Allowed
• .923 OPSA
• .380 wOBAA
• 41.5% Hard Hit Rate
• 40.0% Fly Ball Rate
• 12.3% Barrel Rate
• 1st TTO – 11.74 ERA
• 2nd TTO – 5.63 ERA
• 3rd TTO – 2.70 ERA (3.1 IP)
• Extremely poor Statcast data (below)

BULLPENS LAST 7 DAYS

Team	K%	BB%	AVG	WHIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
Rays	18.8 %	7.7 %	0.245	1.31	3.38	3.7	4.95	4.45
Tigers	36.1 %	4.9 %	0.175	0.83	1.15	1.93	2.44	2.27

THE PLAY: TB ML (Weigh The Play)

The deck looks stacked against the Tigers in this one and although they do have the bullpen edge, I don’t think it’s going to play a factor. My play is the Rays to win tonight, but as those of you who follow me know I like to provide an alternative for those players who are reluctant to lay so much chalk. Sometimes in these exact scenarios, I will spread out my chips on these massive (-300) lines. A good way to do this is to take a weighted play of the F5RL, F5ML, RL & ML. It can lead to a scratch at times but also saves the heartbreak of a late road bullpen meltdown.