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MLBMA Daily Notes 6.4.19 TB at DET




TB Away, 2019 (Last 14 Days)

  • 157 PA
  • .285/.333/.521 Triple Slash
  • .854 OPS
  • .236 ISO
  • .356 wOBA
  • 125 wRC+

DET vs LHP, 2019 (Last 14 Days)

  • 98 PA
  • .231/.268/.319 Triple Slash
  • .587 OPS
  • .088 ISO
  • .249 wOBA
  • 59 wRC+
  • 25.5% K Rate
  • 5.1% BB Rate
  • 33.8% Hard Hit Rate


Blake Snell, 2019 (Last 5 Games Started)

  • 30.1 IP
  • 42 K : 8 BB
  • 36.2% K Rate
  • 6.9% BB Rate
  • 1.78 ERA / 2.12 FIP / 2.40 xFIP
  • 0.96 WHIP
  • .196/.259/.280 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .539 OPSA
  • .240 wOBAA
  • 35.4% Hard Hit Rate
  • 5.1% Barrel Rate
  • Statcast Leader (below)
Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Ryan Carpenter, 2019 (4 Games Started)

  • 19.0 IP
  • 7.58 ERA / 6.93 FIP / 5.44 xFIP
  • 1.47 WHIP
  • .278/.341/.582 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .923 OPSA
  • .380 wOBAA
  • 41.5% Hard Hit Rate
  • 40.0% Fly Ball Rate
  • 12.3% Barrel Rate
  • 1st TTO – 11.74 ERA
  • 2nd TTO – 5.63 ERA
  • 3rd TTO – 2.70 ERA (3.1 IP)
  • Extremely poor Statcast data (below)

Courtesy of Baseball Savant


Rays18.8 %7.7 %0.2451.313.383.74.954.45
Tigers36.1 %4.9 %0.1750.831.151.932.442.27

THE PLAY: TB ML (Weigh The Play)

The deck looks stacked against the Tigers in this one and although they do have the bullpen edge, I don’t think it’s going to play a factor. My play is the Rays to win tonight, but as those of you who follow me know I like to provide an alternative for those players who are reluctant to lay so much chalk. Sometimes in these exact scenarios, I will spread out my chips on these massive (-300) lines. A good way to do this is to take a weighted play of the F5RL, F5ML, RL & ML. It can lead to a scratch at times but also saves the heartbreak of a late road bullpen meltdown.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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