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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.9.19 PIT at STL




STL vs RHP (Last 7 Games)

  • 209 PA
  • .200/.284/.335 Triple Slash
  • .619 OPS
  • .135 ISO
  • .270 wOBA
  • 70 wRC+



Custom MLBMA Charts Exclusively at WINDAILYDFS.COM

My argument for the Pirates today is better explained by the chart than the mediocre team stats I omitted above. The outlying statistics are just average, which is actually a huge step in the right direction after a dismal start to the season. They improved their week-by-week rolling averages again for the second week in a row, and if you go all the way back to April 25, you can see a progression of higher lows being made on the path to recapturing their MAs from below. They just regressed back to the mean, which we will look for today.


Joe Musgrove Away 2019 (4 Games Started)

  • 22 IP
  • 1.23 ERA / 2.18 FIP
  • 0.91 WHIP
  • .200/.244/.275 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .228 wOBAA
  • 2.03 ERA 1st Time Through Order
  • 2.77 ERA 2nd Time Through Order

Michael Wacha 2019 (6 Games Started)

  • 31.1 IP
  • 21 BB
  • 5.17 ERA / 5.53 FIP
  • 1.63 WHIP
  • .254/.362/.475 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .352 wOBAA
  • 4.38 ERA 1st Time Through Order
  • 10.13 ERA 2nd Time Through Order
  • Bottom third Xstats (below)
M. Wacha, Courtesy of Baseball Savant


The PIT bullpen has a 6.31 ERA & 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games, and we want no part of that.


We have to be wary anytime we’re facing a quality hitting team like STL, but there’s a lot to love about Musgrove against the Cardinals. Wacha has been wild and I think this a good opportunity to get some plus money for a change. The safer play is always to take the half run and lesser odds, but there’s valid support for my very popular weighted split between RL & ML. Remember, play small. If you can’t succeed betting $10, why would you bet $100, or $1000? Hone your craft and your style before getting aggressive with your account. This is experience talking.

Let’s Get It.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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