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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.6.19 ARI at TB




ARI Away vs LHP L30

  • 138 PA
  • .333/.399/.577 Triple Slash
  • .976 OPS
  • .244 ISO
  • .408 wOBA
  • 159 wRC+

TB Home vs RHP L30

  • 253 PA
  • .263/.336/.509 Triple Slash
  • .845 OPS
  • .354 wOBA
  • 128 wRC+
  • 42.8% Hard Hit Rate


ARI has been shortchanged the entire season and the erratic nature of the chart lends some perspective to that. However, there are two very positive forces at work here. First, the Dbacks have consistently walloped LHP all year, especially on the road. Most of the spikes that you see are correlated to feasting on lefties. Secondly from a technical standpoint the recent break above MA is bullish, but I also want to point out that the regression was exactly back to the mean. A bounce here is indication of a momentum shift to the upside on the horizon.

For any of you who also actively trade markets, we have a BTFD situation here. BTD means buy the dip, and you can figure out what the F means for yourself. TB has rebounded well this season after piercing their MA to the downside, a big part of that being their ability to hit RHP at home. I like the Rays to find their groove in a fresh week after sleeping in their own beds last night.


Merrill Kelly Away 2019 3 GS

  • 16.2 IP
  • 4.32 ERA / 5.91 FIP / 5.24 xFIP
  • 1.68 WHIP
  • .258/.359/.485 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .358 wOBAA

Blake Snell Home 2019 3 GS

  • 16.1 IP
  • 3.86 ERA / 4.92 FIP / 3.33 xFIP
  • 1.10 WHIP
  • .696 OPSAA
  • 1.7 HR/9 (Highest of career though small sample


There could not be a more lopsided bullpen matchup. The Rays bullpen is the very best by my weighted MLBMA metrics, including both the best ERA & WHIP over the Last 7. ARI is tied for dead last entering today, with a 7.30 ERA 1.54 WHIP over the Last 7. There could be a lot of runs in store for the Rays if they can work Kelly.


I’m always aware of when the Diamondbacks are facing LHP on the Road and I couldn’t believe that the Team Total today was posted at 2.5. To be honest that was my initial focus for this game. I think Snell is trying to hide that toe injury, and he got shelled the last time out. That being said we must recognize his ace upside and consider the Rays current pen performance. The higher probability play here in my opinion is to also get the Rays involved against a mediocre pitcher & putrid bullpen. Either one of these teams could come down with eight runs tonight on their own entering their strong split so I definitely like the prospect of one of the damns breaking in this game.


Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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