MLBMA Daily Notes 5.5.19 NYM at MIL

159

OFFENSE

MIL Home vs LHP 2019

• 235 PA
• .260/.332/.500 Triple Slash
• .832 OPS
• .240 ISO
• .350 wOBA
• 118 wRC+
• 45.8% Hard Hit Rate

NYM Away vs RHP L14

• 100 PA
• .183./240/.312 Triple Slash
• .552 OPS
• .129 ISO
• .242 wOBA
• 49 wRC+
• 37.3% Hard Hit Rate

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

When in Miller Park the Brewers are easily considered one of the best offenses in the game, and you can see above how they have consistently rebounded from their bottoms this year. I fully expect the Brewers to rally today and regain those moving averages from below, heading into their strongest split; At home against a very underwhelming LHP.

STARTING PITCHERS

Zach Davies Home 2019 3 GS

• 16 IP
• 0.00 ERA
• 1.19 WHIP
• .193/.292/.298 Triple Slash
• .266 wOBAA

Jason Vargas Away 2019 3 GS

• 9.1 IP
• 6.75 ERA
• 2.14 WHIP
• .325/.426/.575 Triple Slash
• .423 wOBAA

BULLPENS

By my MLBMA bullpen metrics, I have the Brewers as a top 10 bullpen entering today. Even though the L7 ERA is just under four, their WHIP is under one and a sub three xFIP & SIERA tell a different tale. Don’t forget, Hader did not pitch in that marathon last night and you can bet your bottom dollar we’ll see him tonight.

The Mets have had reverse fortune over the last seven, allowing a 2.22 ERA but an xFIP north of five is reason to expect coming regression. Short of Diaz there’s really no one else in that pen to fear for NYM today. Frankly I’m not sure what the Mets have planned for tonight after using seven different relievers.

THE PLAY: MIL ML (Weighted)

Whether in trading markets or capping baseball, I always try to diversify wherever possible. I know that this is contradictory to the average ”get rich quick” gambling mentality. When concerning profits we want the ability to expose ourselves to as many high probability outcomes as possible to allow the percentages to play out. With a starter like Davies who generally only pitches five innings, I always stay cognizant of how dangerous getting through the sixth & seventh innings can be for middle relief. Couple in the fact we had an 18 inning game last night & there’s a solid argument that an F5 play has less volatility attached. Since cases can be made for both the ML & F5 ML play, it’s probably a good idea to also take a percentage of your position on MIL F5 ML to avoid the potential of a late inning Miller Park shootout. Personally, being that Hader is looming gives me the confidence to play the full game. I want to get as many ABs as possible to let these statistics play out. Good luck.