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MLBMA Daily Notes 5.6.19 MIA at CHN




MIA Away vs LHP 2019

  • 60 PA
  • .241/.300/.333 Triple Slash
  • .633 OPS
  • .278 wOBA
  • 72 wRC+

CHN Home vs RHP L7

  • 104 PA
  • .284/.379/.545 Triple Slash
  • .924 OPS
  • .382 wOBA
  • 139 wRC+
  • 41.5% Hard Hit Rate

Starting Pitching

Sandy Alcantara 2019 6 GS

  • 33.1 IP
  • 4.86 ERA / 4.35 FIP / 5.24 xFIP
  • 1.56 WHIP
  • 15 BB
  • .282/.354/.405 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .326 wOBAA

Cole Hamels Home 2019 2 GS

  • 13.1 IP
  • 2.70 ERA
  • 0.97 WHIP
  • .152/.250/.304 Triple Slash Allowed
  • .247 wOBAA


MIA is dead last in L7 bullpen ERA (8.31) & 28th in L7 WHIP (1.67). Considering Alcantara has only completed six innings once since his stellar debut, the Marlins will have to get anywhere from nine to twelve outs in Wrigley. The Cubbies on the other hand are in top ten of L7 bullpen ERA (2.63) & L7 WHIP (1.02). Strop seems to have straightened himself out and looks like the RP1 I had projected him to be in the offseason.

THE PLAY: CHN ML (Weighted)

Exactly how you want to play this depends on your risk tolerance, bankroll and ability to bet fractionally. I hate being greedy. A general MLB slate can provide around one hundred bets and it’s my goal to identify the top 1%. Winning professional baseball games (and to a significantly lesser extent, capping them) is extremely difficult. I never like to be in a situation where my money is live on a result the manager doesn’t care about. A manager ALWAYS wants to win. The same cannot be said for covering a -1.5 spread. The last run could easily be sacrificed on a leadoff, 9th inning double.

In the age of internet gambling I like to weigh my bets so if I get the desired ML result but not the RL, the night is still profitable. For all intents and purposes, the Cubs easily blow the lid off this game. The MLBMA algorithm has tonight’s implied final scores as MIA 3.04 CHN 5.43.

Just make sure to stay within your own set risk parameters. No game should ever cause to pace the room or break into sweats. If that’s the case, you have bet too much. Play slow, play smart and live to fight another day. This market provides endless opportunities.

Let’s get it.


Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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