MLBMA Daily Notes 5.4.19 ATL at MIA

151

OFFENSE

ATL Away vs RHP

• 35 PA L7
• .310/.382/.552 Triple Slash L7
• .241 ISO L7
• .380 wOBA L7
• 133 wRC+ L7
• 52.0% Hard Hit Rate L7
• .271/.340/.459 Triple Slash L14
• .188 ISO L14
• .337 wOBA L14
• 108 wRC+ L14

I posted these two sets of statistics to give an example as to how the crossing of short term average performance above mid term average performance is considered a bullish indication of positive momentum. You will see this more clearly when applied in the ATL chart below.

MIA Home vs RHP L14

• 170 PA
• .231/.327/.313 Triple Slash
• .082 ISO
• .291 wOBA
• 86 wRC+
• 30% K Rate
• 37.8% Hard Hit Rate

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The Braves’ offense has come down to earth a touch since 4/29, posting a .308 team wOBA L7 after a gaudy .339 L14. However, using our chart to apply technical analysis will provide substance for the argument that this is simply a cyclical valley in an overall bullish scenario. Nearly every time the Braves have bottomed (which is perfectly normal & expected), we have seen a sustained run back to their elite peaks over the span of the coming days. I expect to see this play out again versus Richards who has only faced ATL once on 8.18.18 and was hit hard for five earned runs over 4.1 IP. Remember, capturing a closing point above the moving average is always a bullish sign.

STARTING PITCHERS

Mike Soroka 2019 3GS

• 16.2 IP
• 21 K
• 29.6 K%
• 1.62 ERA / 2.07 FIP / 2.81 xFIP
• 1.14 WHIP
• .210/.300/.242 Triple Slash Allowed
• .246 wOBA

Trevor Richards 2019 Home 4 GS

• 23 IP
• 4.70 ERA / 4.69 FIP / 5.72 xFIP
• 1.30 WHIP

Bullpens

The Braves bullpen has been a known carousel and a bumpy ride at times, but they have found themselves back in the middle of the pack coming into tonight’s game. Guys like Luke Jackson have stepped up recently to bring some long needed stability. The Marlins on the other hand have not been able to figure out how to get those last 12 outs. They are 29th in L7 bullpen ERA at 7.10 over the last 15 IP and it’s been pretty ugly to be honest. Considering the state of the Miami bullpen, let’s give the Atlanta bats 27 outs to get the job done.

The Play: ATL ML